Analysis of Developments in the Space Domain
27 Apr: China launched a Long March-3B from Xichang carrying the TianLian-2 05 (TL-2 05) (63662) relay satellite to Geosynchronous Transfer Orbit. TL-2 05 is the fifth satellite of China’s second-generation data relay satellite system and joins TianLian-1 04 & 05 and TianLian-2 01, 02, 03 and 04 to provide global data relay and transmission services. The relay satellite network allows near real time communications between China Space Station (and other LEO satellites) and their mission control centers. As of 4 May the satellite remained unlocated. Launch Video.
– The addition of Tianlian-2 05 brings the total to 7 operational Tianlian relay satellites. This is China’s second Tianlian launch in 2025. There were zero TL launches in 2023 or 2024.
– The Tianlian satellites are similar to NASA’s Tracking and Data Relay Satellite network and the European Space Agency’s European Data Relay Satellite network. Overall, the Tianlian network consists of 2 first generation and 5 second generation satellites.
– The first generation of TianLian (“sky chain”) satellites were built around the DFH-3 satellite bus and were launched between 25 Apr 2008, and 6 Jul 2021 using Long March 3C rockets from Xichang.
– The second generation of Tianlian satellites are built around the DFH-4 satellite bus and have switched to the more powerful Long March 3B also launching from Xichang.
– The second generation of the satellites introduced multi-targeting ability and improved data transmission rates into the overall network.
– TL-2 uses K-band frequencies (TL-1 satellites used S-band) to enable 1.2 Gbps data transfer rates between the Chinese Space Station and ground control stations.
– The satellites make real-time communications including video possible between the ground and the Tianhe space station module, where three Shenzhou 14 astronauts are currently living and working. See video on China’s relay satellite capabilities.
28 Apr: China launched a Long March-5B with a Yuanzheng-2 upper stage from Wenchang carrying 10 Guowang (63687-63696) satellites. This was the third group of China’s state-sponsored Starlink-like Guowang constellation. The satellites are cataloged under the name Hulianwang Digui. There have been unconfirmed links between the SatNet constellation supporting China’s DF-21D & DF-26B missiles. The DF-26B is China’s first conventionally-armed ballistic missile capable of striking Guam. Launch Video.
– All 10 of the satellites are orbiting at ~1,100 average altitude and are inclined 86.5°.
– The Group 1 Launch (16 Dec 2024) also used the LM-5B to place 10 satellites in orbit. Those satellites are currently orbiting at 1,166km and at an identical 86.5°.
– In contrast, China launched 9 satellites on a LM-8A on 11 Feb 2024. These satellites are believed to be significantly smaller than the Group 1 & 3 satellites.
– Per Chinese news sources: Guowang plans to launch a total of 12,992 satellites. 6,080 will be in an extremely low orbit of 500 to 600km; the other 6,912 satellites will orbit at 1,145km.
– Additional Chinese News Sources: The “GuoWang” satellite program can carry a variety of payloads, including broadband communication payloads, laser communication payloads, synthetic aperture radar payloads, optical remote sensing payloads, and others, to meet the needs of different users and scenarios. It offers comprehensive technical support across numerous fields such as maritime and aviation operations, information security, navigation and positioning, and meteorological research, while also enabling expansion into the global satellite internet access market.
– Per Andrew Jones:
Doing research for this launch I came across a very interesting press report from Taiwan. The report was published in April 2024 and discussed some activity involving Chinese Coast Guard vessels operating near (or in) Taiwanese territorial waters. The report alleges that the Coast Guard vessels were involved with some sort of testing involving the Guowang constellation and China’s DF-21D & DF-26B missiles. The DF-21D is known as a “carrier killer” designed to target US aircraft carriers in the Western Pacific and South China Sea while the DF-26B is known as the “Guam Killer” and is China’s first conventionally-armed ballistic missile capable of striking Guam. My assessment below.
The Report:
Taking a Closer Look:
– Potential coverage area:
-Comparison with Western Constellations
Conclusion: While we do not know the specific support the Guowang test satellites may have provided the Chinese Coast Guard vessels during this exercise/demonstration/operation, we do know there were 9 satellites on orbit and China could have used them in some capacity and in a way which was difficult for the Taiwanese to track. With these test satellites Guowang could provide sporadic coverage to the Miyako Strait. Coverage limitations would constrain testing to ~30 consecutive minutes at specific times of the day. However, testing would still be possible (see example of US military testing of Starlink in 2020 when Starlink had ~10% of its current number of satellites on orbit). The 10-month gap between the test near Taiwan and the first operational launch may have provided China with time to incorporate lessons learned into the operational satellites or just confirmed the performance of existing technologies and weapon system compatibility.
4 May: In the 8 April Integrity Flash I noted that China appeared to be “pulling the plug” on 9 of the 15 Yaogan-35/36/39 triplets. Between 16-22 April, I noticed some developments with the remaining 6 triplets. During this period China increased the average altitude (semi-major axis/SMA) for the Lead and Trail1 satellites for its most recently launched triplets: 1) YG-36 05; 2) YG-39 01; 3) YG-39 02; 4) YG-39 03; 5) YG-39 04; and 6) YG-39 05. China did not significantly alter the SMA for any of the Trail2 satellites in these formations. As a result the Lead and Trail1 satellites are maintaining their relative positions with one another (and potentially maintain inter-satellite communication links) while the Trail2 satellites now have a shorter orbital period and are not maintaining their relative position with the Lead or Trail1 satellites. I do not believe this is a “pull the plug” scenario, rather I suspect China is establishing a RAAN offset for the Trail2 satellites in the YG-36 05 and YG-39 01-05 formations and we will see the formations restored in the next 6 months. For now, none of the 15 YG-35/36/39 triplets are in their original formations.
– China appears to have conducted two sets of maneuvers. Western observers noted three sets of the Lead/Trail1 satellites (39 02, 39 03 & 39 04) increased their SMA on 16-17 April while the other three sets (36 05, 39 01 & 39 05) increased their SMA on 21-22 April.
– The maneuvers appear to have been very precise. All of the Lead and Trail1 satellites increased their SMA an average of 21.35km to ~518km. All Trail2 satellites maintained their average altitudes of ~497km.
– All of the Lead and Trail1 satellites remained in formation. The new SMA for the Lead and Trail1 satellites differed by only an average of 220m. As a result the satellites will maintain their relative positions with one another.
– In early March (before these maneuvers) the average time separation between Lead and Trail1 satellite was 255.7 seconds. On 28 April the average separation between Lead and Trail1 satellites had increased 2 seconds to 257.7 seconds (a 0.8% variance).
– I don’t believe China is “pulling the plug” on these 6 formations. This looks like an inverse from what we saw from late-Jan through Sep 2024 with the older YG-35 & 36 triplets. In those instances China allowed the SMA of the Trail2 satellites to gradually decrease for about 4 months and then attempted to increase their SMA to bring the Trail2 satellites back into formation once they had achieved the desired RAAN offset.
– This time, instead of Trail2 decreasing its SMA, China increased the SMA for Lead and Trail1 satellites. The result is the same, RAAN progression for Lead and Trail1 will differ from Trail2. Once China has achieved the desired RAAN offset they can then lower the SMA for Lead and Trail1 to restore the formation.
– China may have increased the SMA of Lead and Trail1 to a point where natural SMA degradation will bring them down to Trail2 while minimizing the need for additional maneuvers and conserving fuel.
– We will be able to observe how the triplet formations evolve over the coming weeks. For now, and for the first time since late-2021, none of the 15 triplet formations appear to be fully operational.
25 Apr: Various news sources reported that the Russian Cosmos 2553 (51511) satellite appeared to become unstable in November 2024. Russia launched Cosmos 2553 on 5 Feb 2022 (editor’s note: this was less than 3 weeks prior to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and 82 days after Russia’s destructive Nudol ASAT test) and soon-after there were rumors that the satellite was potentially a test of a nuclear armed anti-satellite weapon (although there have been no reports that Cosmos 2553 actually has a nuclear weapon on board.) Secure World Foundation did an excellent article which you should read. LeoLabs recently released data indicating its (LeoLabs) space tracking radars had detected Cosmos 2553 had become unstable in November 2024. In mid-December the LeoLabs hypothesis was confirmed with optical imagery from Maxar satellites.
LeoLabs Senior Technical Fellow (and friend of the Flash), Dr Darren McKnight was nice enough to provide some insight on what LeoLabs was able to observe.
– LeoLabs provides persistent orbital intelligence on nearly 24,000 objects in LEO by providing not only updated state vectors six to eight times a day but also object characteristics to include radar cross-section, maneuverability, area-to-mass ratio, proximity operations characterization, attitude instability, etc.
– LeoLabs monitored Cosmos 2553 since its launch in Feb 2022. LeoLabs has developed and conducted doppler
residuals tests to determine satellite instability. In the Fall of 2024 LeoLabs examined Cosmos 2553 and the results initially found the satellite stable. However, through continuous monitoring it was shown to have become unstable around 15 November 2024.
– In object characterization tradecraft, we (LeoLabs) do not assign an object with a certain state with high confidence from a single feature, so we considered the fact that Cosmos 2553 had an unstable attitude (i.e., tumbling) as of 15 November 2024 with moderate confidence.
– LeoLabs then pursued verification through a non-Earth imaging (NEI) partner and in mid-December a sequence of images showed a clear instability (i.e., tumbling). At that time, LeoLabs concluded that Cosmos 2553 was tumbling with high confidence.
– Over the past few months, the doppler residuals plot has shown a slight reduction in magnitude hinting that either the tumble is slowing, or the orientation of the spacecraft tumble relative to the ground is changing slightly.
I also spoke to Stephen Hannah, the SSA/SDA Product Manager for Maxar Intelligence. Stephen provided some great insights into the Non-Earth Imaging support Maxar provided to confirm Cosmos 2553 tumbling status.
– Maxar imaged Cosmos 2553 in January 2024 (pre-tumble). Using its Worldview Legion satellites, Maxar collected a 3 image sequence at a range of 1380-1587km at 52.1-79.5 cm Space Sample Distance (or resolution). Maxar’s Non Earth Imagine (NEI) analytics showed a fully stable to possibly a ~0.5° slew; perfectly within expected range for a stable satellite.
– Following a conversation with LeoLabs, Maxar collected 9 image sequence at a range of 1421km – 1686km at 71.2 – 84.5 cm SSD/resolution on 15 Dec 2024. Maxar’s NEI analytics showed a rotation rate of around ~2.3-2.4°/sec, appearing to be close to a flat spin about the payload line of sight.
Bottom line: Maxar imagery showed a stable Cosmos 2553 in Jan 2024 and a tumbling (and likely non-operational) Cosmos 2553 in December 2024.
(editor’s note: Thanks for the inputs Dr McKnight & Stephen Hannah! This is the way.)
– It appears the story of Cosmos 2553 may not have ended. A spokesperson from Slingshot Aerospace (another space domain monitoring company that operates 150+ optical telescopes), initially noted Cosmos 2553’s brightness became variable, indicating a potential tumble.” However, according to Slingshot’s latest observations, Cosmos 2553 appears to have stabilized, according to Belinda Marchand, the company’s Chief Science Officer.
28 Apr: The Space Review published another tremendous article from Bart Hendrickx in which Bart takes a look at the history of the Russian inspector/anti-satellite Nivilir development and testing. I’ve included excerpts below to capture Bart’s description of Nivilir flight history. As is the norm for Bart’s articles, there is a ton of additional details in the article which you should read in its entirety.
History of Russian inspection satellites
