Analysis of Developments in the Space Domain
7 Mar: Since launching Cosmos 2581 (62902), Cosmos 2582 (62903) and Cosmos 2583 (62904) on 5 Feb 2025, Russia has maneuvered 2581 and 2582 into formation with one another. On 5 Mar the 2 satellites briefly came within <100m from one another. For its part, Cosmos 2583 has yet to maneuver, however it is flying at a slightly lower altitude than the 2581/2582 pair and passed both satellites on 7 Mar with a point of closest approach of <1km. The situation continues to evolve, but I worked with the COMSPOC team to analyze the orbital activities of all three satellites from 13 Feb through 7 Mar. Watch COMSPOC video of 2581/2582 Close Approach. Watch COMSPOC video of 2581/2582/2583 Close Approach.
– All 3 satellites are in an 82.0 inclined orbit. Cosmos 2581 & 2582 have an average altitude of 588.2km while Cosmos 2583 has an average altitude of 587.5km.
– Immediately after orbit insertion Cosmos 2582 was in “lead” position followed by Cosmos 2583 and then 2581. Cosmos 2581 and 2582 were at 586.6km average altitude while 2583 was at 588.5km, so both 2581 and 2582 drifted “ahead” of 2583.
– On 15 Feb, 2582 increased its average altitude 2.8km to 589.4km, slowing its motion relative to both 2583 and 2581.
-On 19-20 Feb 2581 does a series of burns to increase its average altitude 2.3km to 588.7km. At this point 2581’s average altitude is 0.6km less than 2582.
– On 24-25 Feb 2582 lowers its average altitude to match 2581. Both satellites are orbiting at an average altitude of 588.4km.
– These maneuvers lead to a series of 2581/2582 close approaches between 26 Feb to 3 Mar. The closest of these approaches was <100m.
– On ~3 Mar 2582 makes a slight adjustment to its average altitude (~100m) resulting in 2581/2582 naturally maintaining a relative distance of ~0.1-4km. See Video.
– Cosmos 2583 has not appeared to maneuver since arriving on orbit. As noted, its average altitude is lower than 2581/2582. As a result 2583 passed through the 2581/2582 formation on 7 Mar, resulting in several close approaches of less than 0.5km. See Video.
Russia has released virtually no information regarding the mission of these satellites other than to say they were launched for the Ministry of Defense. Cosmos 2581 and 2582s’ coordinated maneuvers would at the very least enable satellite inspection and could indicate a counter-space capability test. Russia has conducted co-orbital counterspace testing in the past (see next article as a refresher) and has been accused by the United States as having two satellites on-orbit (Cosmos 2558 and Cosmos 2576) with counterspace capabilities.
The relationship between Cosmos 2581 and 2582 warrants continued monitoring. Cosmos 2583 remains a mystery; unknown if it will eventually join the 2581/2582 formation, conduct some other mission, or has suffered some anomaly.
The United States has accused Russia of conducting on-orbit counterspace testing in the past. Testing thus far has not resulted in the creation of space debris. Below is an excerpt from the most excellent Secure World Foundation (SWF) 2024 Global Counterspace Capabilities Report describing the activities of Cosmos 2519 and its sub-satellites, Cosmos 2521 & Cosmos 2523, from July 2017 – June 2018.
Cosmos 2519
28 Feb: Cosmos 2577 (61179) re-entered the Earth’s atmosphere on 26 Feb. The satellite’s demise came just 5 months after its launch with Cosmos 2578 (61180) (which remains in orbit). During its 5 months on orbit Cosmos 2577 does not appear to have made any maneuvers.
Background:
From Bart Hendrickx:
Interestingly, after Cosmos 2577 re-entered, Cosmos 2578 began to slowly raise its average altitude. 2578’s SMA on 9 Mar was 298.4km (an increase of ~3km from 28 Feb). For their part, both Cosmos 2574 and 2575 have also recently increased their average altitudes (2574 is now 335.8km and Cosmos 2575 is at 324.9km).
7 Mar: China swapped the Trail1 and Trail2 satellites’ position in the Yaogan-39 02 (57886, 57889 & 57890) formation for about a week in late February/early March before maneuvering both satellites to resume their previous formation (believe me, I know it is confusing…graphic support on following page). This is the second such swap since October 2024 when Yaogan-39 04 also maneuvered its third satellite into second position (that change continues to persist).
I think you all are tracking that China launched a series of 15 “triplet” Yaogan satellite formations from late 2021-2023. China launched the Yaogan-39 02A/B/C triplets which China launched on 17 September 2023.
From October 2023 – late-February 2025 YG-39 02B was lead and YG-39 02C in Trail1 and YG-39 02A was Trail2. From 26 Feb – 4 Mar China increased the average altitude of YG-39 02C while decreasing the average altitude of YG-39 02A. On 28 Feb YG-39 02A passed YG-39 02C and became the Trail1 satellite. This condition lasted until 8 Mar, when 02C passed 02A to return to the Trail1 position.
YG-36 05 and YG-39 05 also have Trail1 and Trail2 satellites that appear to be getting closer to one another. So more to follow.
28 Feb 2025: It appears SJ-23 (55131) reached the easternmost limit of its GEO wandering and has increased its SMA to initiate a westward drift. I took the opportunity to compare SJ-23’s pattern of life with China’s other two GEO wanderers, Shiyan 12-01 and 12-02 (50321 & 50322).
-On 28 Feb SJ-23 increased its average altitude 96.1km. At the time its position was 174°E longitude.
– Comparison with Shiyan 12-01 and 12-02
27 Feb: China launched a Long March-2C with the SuperView Neo 1-03 (63125) and SuperView Neo 1-04 (63126) remote sensing satellites from Jiuquan. According to official sources, “the two high-resolution optical satellites mainly serve fields such as natural resources, urban safety, emergency management and maritime affair, providing users with rich data products and diverse application services”. The satellites join 7 other SuperView Neo satellites in Low Earth Orbit. Launch Video.
– SuperView Neo 1-03 & 1-04 are in co-planar orbits, with an initial average altitude of 497km and an inclination of 97.3°. Both increased their average altitude ~4km in early-March.
– Neo 1-03 and 1-04 are high resolution satellites and join Neo 1-01 (52320) and 1-02 (52322) which were launched in 2022 (also using a LM-2C from Jiuquan).
– Neo 1-03 and 1-04 are not co-planar with any other Superview Neo satellites. They all share similar average altitude and inclination, however are distributed over 5 orbital planes. Neo 1-03/04 have a RAAN offset 38.4° east of the Neo 1-01/02. (see graphic).
– Neo 1-03/04 are orbiting near one another. They will likely spread out over time, similar to 1-01/02.
-The Superview NEO constellation is operated by a Chinese commercial company, China Sewei Surveying and Mapping Technology Co Ltd (aka China Sewei). China Sewei currently operates 40 earth observation satellites and offers “diversified products in resolution, accuracy and spectral bands.”
– China Sewei plans call for a Superview NEO constellation of at least 28 total satellites.
– Current Status
22 Feb 2025: Many will recall that on 12 Aug 2023 China launched the world’s first GEO based Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) imaging satellite, Ludi Tance-4 01 (57624) on a Long March 3B rocket from Xichang. Watch mission rendition Video. On 27 Feb 2025 Chinese scientists officially disclosed some of the technology behind this satellite. Excerpts below are from
– The satellite’s beam synthesis technology integrates phased-array emitters across a 65-foot deployable antenna for enhanced radar precision.
– Ludi operates at an altitude of 22,370 miles (36,000 km), granting China persistent surveillance over one-third of the Earth’s surface. This high-altitude system significantly surpasses US radar satellites, which remain confined to low Earth orbit.
– Ludi employs a novel “space power combination” system that synthesizes multiple microwave beams mid-space between two objects, thereby enhancing radar signal strength and stability.
– Given its capabilities, the system could be integrated with other Chinese reconnaissance satellites to enhance real-time tracking and targeting.
– Ludi Tance 4 employs an advanced stability control mechanism that relies on ultra-precision gyroscopes, as well as positioning signals from both China’s Beidou and the US GPS network, allowing it to maintain exact antenna alignment despite gravitational perturbations.
– A key innovation is Ludi’s back-projection algorithm, which corrects for orbital curvature distortions that traditionally degrade SAR image quality. “It mathematically compensates for orbital curvature that would blur conventional SAR images beyond recognition,” the research team explained. This computational enhancement ensures high-resolution imaging even under dynamic orbital conditions.
– China is already working on next-generation geosynchronous SAR satellites designed to meet higher performance benchmarks.
27 Feb – 1 Mar: China made an inclination adjustment for Gaofen-4 (41194), its first Geostationary based imaging system. GF-4 is entering its 10th year on orbit (it was China’s “Holiday Launch” on 28 Dec 2015) and this maneuver appears to be for station-keeping. Thank you to Robin Planell of LSAS for his assistance.
– Chinese space operators conducted a series of maneuvers to reduce GF-4’s inclination from 0.35° to just under 0.13°. Unlike changes in average altitude, inclination changes require significant energy and therefore are relatively expensive in terms of fuel use.
– GF-4 is China’s first GEO based imaging satellite and is believed to have a 50m resolution. From its position at 105.7°E GF-4 can keep a watchful eye on the Western Pacific and assist with tracking US aircraft carrier battle groups operating in the area.
– China has learned from GF-4 and has launched 3 other GEO based optical imaging satellites (GF-13 01, GF-13 02 and YG-41) with improving resolution. The two GF-13 satellites are believed to have 15m resolution and the YG-41 might approach 2.5m. China also operates the world’s only GEO based SAR imager (LudiTance-4 01) with a resolution of 20m.
4 Mar: China’s ZhongXing (ChinaSat)-10R satellite (63075) has been cataloged at 126°E longitude. This puts the satellite in the general vicinity of ZhongXing-6D (52255, launched in 2022) and ZhongXing-26 (55686, launched in 2023). Orbital inclination is 0.1° which is consistent with other ZhongXing spacecraft. There are now 19 active ZhongXing satellites on orbit, all between the eastern Indian Ocean through the western Pacific with the heaviest concentration over the South China Sea.16
