Analysis of Developments in the Space Domain
11 Jan 21: China Aerospace Science and Technology Corporation (CASC) announced successful tests of a range of liquid and solid rocket engines
– CASC stated it had made progress on key technologies for a 220-ton thrust, liquid hydrogen-liquid oxygen staged engine.
The Long March 9 rocket is a super heavy-lift launch vehicle being developed to launch major missions, including supporting future crewed missions to the moon. The rocket is designed to lift 140 tons to LEO or 50 tons to trans lunar injection. A first flight is expected around 2030. (VIDEO of Future Chinese SLVs)
Overview: The Russian Liana constellation
While the Russian Ministry of Defense was still lacking an all-weather, day-and-night radar imaging capability from space (as of 2018), it continues to invest in developing space systems and the terrestrial infrastructure to use them. For instance, special terminals installed on Russian battleships were reported to be capable of downlinking real-time data directly from the Liana network for the purpose of weapon guidance.
Fun Fact: Over the course of the late 1980s and 1990s, China’s commercial launch industry was seeing initial signs of success, but this all changed with multiple failures in the mid-1990s, namely Apstar-2 and Intelsat-708 (more VIDEO). The two failures–both involving American-made satellites–led to the United States barring the launch of sensitive American technology on Chinese rockets…meaning no American-made satellites, and indeed few European-made ones, could launch on Chinese rockets. As a result, China focused on developing turnkey space solutions for export…building the satellite, launch vehicle, and all assorted hardware and technical services.
19 Jan 21: China’s first launch of 2021.
The Tiantong constellation is similar to INMARSAT and is operated by China Telecom. The launch was the first of more than 40 space missions scheduled for liftoff from China this year.
29 Jan 21: China launched three Yaogan military satellites on a Long March 4C rocket, adding to a fleet of spacecraft independent analysts believe are designed to spy on naval forces. (VIDEO of LM-4C preparation & Launch)
With this launch, there are 69 Yaogan satellites in a variety of orbits, ranging from 35° to 100° and from 480 km circular orbits to 1,200 km eccentric orbits. China launched its first Yaogan satellite in 2006 (Yaogan 1 broke up from an internal explosion in Feb 2010) and the constellation is made up of a variety of sensor types: Electro-Optical, Synthetic Aperture Radar and SIGINT.
an 21: Opinion piece from Doug Laverro: future conflicts will inevitably include targets in the space domain and we must rethink how we will deal with international discussions on attacks against space systems and anti-satellite (ASAT) weapons.
The US may misunderstand China’s risk tolerance, the link between Chinese sovereignty and space power, and the impact of space dominance doctrine on core Chinese interests.
– American efforts to remain the dominant space power will likely trigger counterbalancing as China attempts to maintain access to space
– Sino-US space relations could enter a period of uncontrolled escalation due to: 1) lack of a mutual restraint system; 2) an existing space law regime that fails to keep pace with a rapidly changing space environment; and 3) techno-environmental factors that create deterrence instability.
– The United States must formulate an actor-specific strategy for China that establishes deterrence stability through non-escalatory and asymmetric means.
– “We’re not good at it [relations with China], because we don’t understand their history and culture.” (Henry Kissinger). Nowhere are these strategic disconnects more apparent than in Sino-US space competition.
