Analysis of Developments in the Space Domain
8 Nov 2025: It’s been a while since I checked in on the Russian Cosmos 2581/82/83 (62902/62903/62904) trio. Recall Russia launched these three satellites on 5 Feb 2025 (video) and released no details of the mission other than to say they were for the “Ministry of Defense.” While my reporting regarding these objects ceased in early April, their activities have not…the spacecraft regularly orbit within <1km of one another. My ability to analyze what’s going on is limited due to reliance on two-line element set (TLE) based data which is satisfactory for monitoring the general goings-on on orbit but presents challenges when trying to perform detailed analysis of two objects which are extremely close to one another or frequently maneuvering (or both). With these limitations I turned to the pros over at COMSPOC_OPS to take a look at the trio and compare our results. To limit the scope of the research we focused on on just the interactions from 24-29 October 2025. Watch Video of 25 Oct Activity.
– First a little review:
– TLE Based Analysis 24-29 October 2025
– COMSPOC Analysis: Cosmos 2581 v 2583 24-29 October 2025
their applications called “SSASuite.”
Russian space operators likely set up this point of closest approach with 2 separate Cosmos 2583 maneuvers. The first occurred on between 1710-0744z with a total delta v (fuel usage, “dV”) of 0.242 m/s, and the second just over an hour later between 0851-0903z with a total dV of 0.407 m/s. You can see both maneuvers in this VIDEO, specifically when Cosmos 2583 is highlighted in RED.
– In some of the videos you’ll notice the satellites are in the center of an (American) football shaped cage. These cages are covariance ellipsoids which indicate COMSPOC’s confidence in the solution. A covariance ellipsoid, such as you see in the video, represents a volume within which COMSPOC’s system has
determined that the object resides, with a 95% certainty. The radii of the covariance volume for COSMOS 2583 are 221.1m by 22.92m by 52.95m. By contrast, the covariance radii for COSMOS 2581 are 61.58m by 14.75m by 10.92m. This volume is considerably smaller than 2583’s, indicating that COMSPOC had better precision about the position of 2581 than 2583. And given that 2583 was maneuvering during this time, it makes clear sense why this would be.
3 November 2025: Space Review journalist Bart Hendrickx reports that Russia is using a Chinese-built satellite—likely the Taijing-3-02 (likely 58822) launched in January 2024—to obtain high-resolution (0.5m) imagery in support of its war in Ukraine, rebranding it as “Stilsat-1” despite never registering it. The satellite was purchased turnkey from a Chinese private firm, MinoSpace, because the Russian industry could not rapidly produce an optical system. Operated by the private Russian company Stilsoft, Stilsat-1 supports security services, including the FSB, by providing optical reconnaissance, identification of Ukrainian infrastructure, targeting support, and monitoring of Russian-occupied territories.
From Bart Hendrickx’s detailed SpaceReview article:
7 Nov 2025: As noted in the 26 October Flash, China launched TJS-20 (66142) on 23 October. After spending a little over a week in Geosynchronous Transfer Orbit (GTO) Chinese space operators circularized TJS-20’s orbit. TJS-20 has now joined the GEO belt and is located at 62.5° E longitude (east of the Arabian Peninsula and west of India). TJS-20’s orbit is inclined 6.0° which is greater than any of the other TJS satellites. China launched TJS-20 using a LM-5 with an extended fairing, the exact same launch configuration used for TJS-11 in February 2024. The China Aerospace Science and Technology (CAST) organization developed TJS-20. Previous TJS satellites also built by CAST include TJS-1 (40892), TJS-4 (44637), TJS-9 (50574), TJS-11 (59020) and TJS-12 (62374) which are assessed to be part of the Qianshao program and SIGINT mission related.
– At 6.0° TJS-20 has a greater inclination than any of the other suspected TJS SIGINT satellites. TJS-11 has the second highest inclination…at the beginning of its life on orbit TJS-11 was inclined 5.5° and is now at 4.5°. TJS-20’s nearest TJS neighbor is TJS-2 (41191) which is at 66.5° E and is a suspected missile warning satellite.
TJS Summary
– TJS-20 is the 6th TJS launch in 2025, 2x greater than any other year. In the past 10 years China has launched 18 TJS satellites, half of which were launched in the past 2 years. For some reason China avoided the TJS-8 and TJS-18 designations…
8 Nov 2025: Chinese space operators raised the average altitude of YG-43 03A (65547) to match that of YG-43 03B/C (65545/65546), and the third satellite now has an ~0.7° west RAAN offset from its sibling satellites. Thanks to the J2 effect, the trio are now orbiting in a “triangle” formation and able to perform their radio frequency monitoring and geolocation mission. China has followed a similar deployment pattern for its other RF/Geolocation triplet formations, namely YG-40 02A/B/C (63918, 63919 & 63920), YG-40 01A/B/C (57830, 57831 & 57832) and its 4 sets of YG-31 triplets. YG-40 01 and 02 also have a west RAAN offset of ~0.7°.
China deployed the 3 YG-40 formations into orbital planes separated by ~37°. Unknown how many YG-40 triplets China intends to launch.
Editor’s Note: current catalog (as of 9 Nov 0447UTC) has associated YG-43 03A with SATNO 65544 and not 65547, which is cataloged as “CZ-6A Deb” . I believe this is in error as 65544 has not maneuvered since launch while 65547 has performed several maneuvers since the 6 Sep 2025 launch.
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26 Oct 2025: China launched a LM-3B with the Gaofen-14 02 (66175) satellite from Xichang. According to official sources, Gaofen-14 02 entered the planned orbit successfully, it is currently cataloged in a sun synchronous orbit with an average altitude 483.8km and inclined 97.4°. Chinese media noted, “the Gaofen-14 satellite can efficiently acquire high-precision stereo imagery across the globe, produce large-scale digital topographic maps, and generate products such as digital elevation models, digital surface models, and digital orthophotos, providing fundamental geographic information support for national economic and national defense development.” Gaofen-14 02 joins the still operational Gaofen-14 01 (47231) on orbit. Launch Video.
– This was only the second LM-3B to launch into a sun synchronous orbit (SSO), the first was GF-14 01 on 6 Dec 2020.
– Per Jack Congram’s awesome China in Space site, Gaofen-14 02 “will circle basically the entire Earth, creating digital topographical maps, elevation models, and other kinds of geographic maps. It has been reported that digital items created by Gaofen-14-02 will support national plans as well as those for the Belt and Road Initiative.”
– GF-14 02 is in a similar orbit with that of its older sibling, GF-14 01. The latter has an average altitude of ~488km, about 5km higher than GF-14 02, and is inclined 97.3°, 0.1° greater than GF-14 02.
-Currently GF-14 01 has a 4.2° west RAAN offset from GF-14 02. This may change as GF-14 02 settles into its final orbit. Recall rate of RAAN precession varies with average altitude.
3 Nov 2025: China launched a Long March-7A with the Yaogan-46 (66313) remote sensing satellite from Wenchang. According to official sources, the satellite entered the planned orbit and “will be primarily used in disaster prevention and relief, land resource surveys, hydrology, meteorology, and other related fields”. The 18 SDS has cataloged the satellite in Medium Earth Orbit (MEO) and in a similar orbit as Yaogan-45 (65563) which China launched just 55 days prior (9 Sep 2025). It appears China is establishing a Yaogan remote sensing constellation in MEO. China has not released information regarding any specific sensor types, however the launch patch from YG-45 seemed to indicate an imaging Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR). Launch Video.
– YG-46 is in a 7,500×7,364km orbit with an inclination of 20.0°. By comparison YG-45 is in a 7,504×7,494km orbit and is also inclined 20.0°.
-The two satellites are NOT co-planar as YG-46’s orbit is offset ~120° from YG-45. This suggests there may be another Yaogan MEO satellite in the future to give the constellation 3 orbital planes separated by 120°.
– China used a LM-7A to launch both YG-45 and YG-46. YG-46 was the second instance the LM-7A has been used to support a MEO launch.
– China’s use of MEO for Yaogan reconnaissance satellites is unusual in that it is much further from the Earth’s surface than is typical for Earth Observation satellites. Being at higher altitudes increases the potential sensor coverage area, but this comes at the cost of decreased imagery resolution.
31 Oct 2025: The Yaogan-43 01 formation (60458-60466) continues to change. Back in April I noted that 5 of the 9 satellites had ceased maintaining their average altitudes resulting in a break in formation and increasing RAAN differentials. Revisiting the orbits for all 9 satellites it appears China may be operating them in three separate formations of three satellites. Specifically, Group 1: YG-43 01 B/J/A (60459, 60466, 60458), Group 2: YG-43 01 D/G/F (60461, 60464, 60463), and Group 3: YG-43 01 C/H/E (60460, 60465, 60462). We do not know the specific capabilities of any of the Yaogan-43 satellites, “reportedly these are different satellites from several manufacturers.” China may be creating these sub-groups to test tip-cue capabilities from differing sensor types.
– Overview
– Group 1: YG-43 01 B/J/A
– Group 2: YG-43 01 D/G/F
– Group 3: YG-43 01 C/H/E
– While We’re Here: A Quick Look at YG-43 02/03
16 October 2025: China’s experimental SAR imaging satellite, XJY-7 (47298) re-entered the Earth’s atmosphere crashing into the Atlantic Ocean near the Canary Islands. After XJS-7 was destroyed, our friends at HEO released both imagery and a 3D model of XJS-7 which confirmed the satellite had a SAR capability and also used fixed solar panels.
– China launched XJY-7 (47298) on 22 Dec 2020 on the maiden LM-8 flight from Wenchang along with 4 other satellites. Launch Video.
– China released a satellite rendering immediately following launch which showed the satellite prior to SAR antenna deployment.
– For nearly 5yrs the XJY-7 operated in a sun-synchronous orbit, at 495km with 97.4° inclination.
– XJY-7 last maneuvered ~16 Aug 2024 and over the next year its orbit slowly decayed until it re-entered on 16 Oct 2025.
– In addition to confirming XJY-7 was a SAR satellite, HEO imagery also revealed XJY-7 had to rotate its entire body due to its use of fixed solar arrays.
