Analysis of Developments in the Space Domain
27 Jan – 5 Feb: Per reporting from the Joint Capabilities Office (JCO), between 27 Jan – 5 Feb, Russia’s Luch/Olymp 2 (55841) and Intelsat 1002 (28358) were operating in close proximity. At first glance I assumed this was just another case of Luch doing typical Luch things. I was wrong. From 27-31 January, Luch/Olymp 2 does not appear to maneuver, while Intelsat 1002 did conduct several minor altitude adjustments. According to TLE data on 29 Jan the two satellites were <1km apart. Interestingly, Intelsat 1002 (which is docked with the Mission Extension Vehicle-2 <46113>) had highly favorable lighting conditions for imaging Luch/Olymp 2. MEV-2 is known to have imaging capabilities. Other points of closest approach (POCAs) during this time were between 3-10kms with lighting conditions favorable for Luch/Olymp 2 to image Intelsat 1002. On 6 Feb Luch/Olymp 2 began a series of altitude increases and as of 21 Feb, it was orbiting ~261km below the GEO belt and drifting eastward 3.25° per day and the two satellites were over 30,000km apart.
Based on circumstantial evidence it appears that Intelsat 1002/MEV-2 maneuvered to create a <1km POCA with Luch/Olymp 2 with optimal lighting conditions for imaging the Russian satellite. There is also a chance that both satellites were operating without regard to one another and the <1km POCA was unintentional (which is a little unnerving).
4 Feb 2025: Chinese space operators circularized TJS-14’s (62804) orbit placing the satellite into Geosynchronous orbit over 18.3°E. At this location TJS-14 is the furthest west from China of any of the TJS satellites (TJS-7 notwithstanding which is over the western hemisphere…making it east of China.) As with TJS-12 (62374), TJS-14 has an inclination of 2.0°. The mission of TJS-14 remains unknown, however other TJS satellites are believed to perform SIGINT collection, Missile Warning or some form of satellite inspection mission.
– TJS-14’s 2.0° inclination is similar to that of TJS-12 (62374) which was originally 2.0° and is currently 1.8°. TJS-12 is located over 146.5°E.
– The nearest Chinese GEO satellites are two relay satellites, Tianlian 1-05 (49011) at 16.8°E and Tianlian 2-03 at 10.5°E. (see graphic).
– Open source reporting indicates that TJS-1, 4, 9 & 12 are performing signals collection (SIGINT), while TJS-2, 5, 6 & 13 (HEO) are missile warning (MW) satellites.
-Examining the spacing between the satellites does not yield any conclusive evidence as to the mission of TJS-14.
– Photometric analysis could yield clues as to the
size/shape of TJS-14. This data could then be compared with the TJS satellites believed to be SIGINT and MW.
-The nearest US satellite of interest is DSP-23 (32287). DSP-23 (32287) was the last of the DSP satellites to be launched (2007) and failed within its first year on orbit.
TJS-14 brings the total number of active TJS satellites to 13 (there is no TJS-8). China launched 5 total TJS satellites from 2015 to 2020. In 2021 launches surged to 3 with no launches in 2022. In just the past 14 months China has launched 5 TJS satellites.
11 Feb 2025: Sun Wukong is a frequent character in Chinese space logos and featured prominently in TJS-14’s logo. While relatively unknown outside of China, this mythical figure is one of the most iconic and beloved figures in Chinese mythology. His story, full of magic, rebellion, and redemption, has captivated generations of readers and continues to resonate worldwide. One of my colleagues, Dee Zimmerman, provided the following analysis.
Sun Wukong, the Monkey King from Journey to the West, is a fitting mascot for China’s space missions due to his legendary traits and symbolism in Chinese culture. Here’s why:
1. Symbol of Exploration and Adventure: Sun Wukong is known for his fearless spirit and insatiable curiosity, much like space exploration itself. His journey to the heavens parallels humanity’s quest to explore space.
2. Power and Speed: The Monkey King’s ability to travel vast distances in a single leap (the Jindouyun, or somersault cloud) symbolizes rapid advancements in space technology and the ambition to reach new frontiers quickly.
3. Immortality and Endurance: Space missions require resilience, adaptability, and longevity. Sun Wukong’s near-indestructible nature reflects the durability of spacecraft and the perseverance needed for long-term space exploration.
4. Wisdom and Strategy: Though mischievous, Sun Wukong is also highly intelligent and resourceful, traits essential for problem-solving in space travel.
5. Cultural and National Pride: As one of the most iconic figures in Chinese mythology, using Sun Wukong as a mascot reinforces national pride and connects modern achievements to China’s rich heritage.
China’s space agency has referenced Sun Wukong in various ways, such as naming its Dark Matter Particle Explorer (DAMPE) “Wukong”, symbolizing its mission to seek the unseen, much like the Monkey King’s ability to see beyond illusions.
10 Feb: As noted in the 2 February Flash, China launched its 4th batch of 18 Qianfan (SpaceSail) low earth orbit communications satellites on 23 January. After a few weeks those satellites, Qianfan 55-72 (62785-62802) are now in the catalog. All of the Qianfan satellites are inclined 89° but their orbiting altitude differs, possibly due to satellite anomalies. Each launch has been to a unique orbital plan.
– Qianfan 55-72 are also known as, Polar Orbit Group 6, and are orbiting at an average altitude of ~804-808km.
– All 18 of the satellites appear to have conducted initial orbit raising maneuvers.
-Batch Updates:
11 Feb: China conducted the first Long March-8A launch vehicle with 9 Guowang Group 02 (SatNet) (62971-62979) low earth orbit satellites from Wenchang. According to CASC, the Long March-8A is designed to launch groups of satellites for satellite constellations. China has released little information regarding Guowang satellite capabilities or mass/size. Launch Video.
– Over 2 launches, China has launched 19 of the Guowang satellites.
– Per Andrew Jones:
A domestically controlled satellite network ensures China’s strategic independence from foreign providers like Starlink. The Chinese military also noted the value of that system from the early days of Ukraine’s response to the Russian invasion of the country in 2022.
22 Feb 2025: China launched a Long March-3B with the ZhongXing (ChinaSat)-10R satellite (2025-036) from the Xichang. ZhongXing-10R is a communications satellite designed to “provide reliable, stable and safe radio and television transmission and communication services”. As of 23 Feb, ZhongXing-10R was in Geosynchronous Transfer Orbit (GTO) and its ultimate location on the Geostationary belt is unknown. Launch Video.
– Per Andrew Jones:
The launch was China’s eighth orbital launch attempt of the year…CASC has yet to publish an overview of China’s plans for the year, but is expected to do so later this month. The country may once again attempt to reach around 100 launches—as targeted for 2024—or more. Commercial launch companies headquartered in Beijing are aiming for a collective total of around 40 launches, according to officials at a recent commercial space conference.
20 Feb: Cosmos 2576 (59773), a Russian satellite suspected of having anti-satellite capabilities, began a series of maneuvers in late November 2024 which included changes in average altitude (common) as well as changes in inclination (uncommon). From 9-19 Feb, Cosmos 2576 raised its altitude ~35km to 490.6km and increased its inclination 0.1°. Inclination changes are rare due to their large fuel expenditures. Cosmos 2576 had been co-planar with a US high-value satellite, USA 314. It is unknown if Russia altered Cosmos 2576 as a result of changes with USA 314 or other satellites of interest. Per the Joint Capabilities Office (JCO) reporting, the recent maneuvers placed COSMOS 2576 closer to two well-tracked objects. JCO provided no further specifics regarding the objects.
– Russia launched Cosmos 2576 on 16 May 2024 from Plesetsk using a Soyuz 2.1b. There were 9 other payloads on-board.
– Russia launched Cosmos 2576 into a co-planar orbit with USA 314, prompting a rapid response from the US Department of Defense.
– From mid-June until 30 November 2024 Cosmos 2576 maintained an average altitude
between 445-451km with an inclination of 97.2°.
– On 30 Nov – 11 Dec, Russia raised Cosmos 2576 average altitude 24.4km to 471.5km. Simultaneously, Cosmos 2576 changed its inclination 0.1° to 97.3°.
– Cosmos 2576 maintained this average altitude and inclination until 9 Feb 2025.
– From 9 – 19 Feb, Russia raised Cosmos 2576 average altitude 25.2km to 490.9km. It also changed its inclination another 0.1° to 97.4°.
5 Feb: Russia launched a Soyuz 2.1v with a Volga upper (3rd) stage from Plesetsk. On board were three satellites which US Space Command has labeled Cosmos 2581, 2582 and 2583 (62902-62904). Russia has released no information regarding the mission of these satellites other than to say they were launched for the Ministry of Defense.
Launch Video.
-The satellites are all co-planar with an inclination of 82.0°. Initial average altitude for all three satellites was ~587km.
-Per Bart Hendrycx:
