Analysis of Developments in the Space Domain
7 Mar: China launched a Long March-3B with the TJS-15 (63157) (and another possible object, likely an apogee kick motor <63299>) from Xichang. According to official sources, the satellite has entered the planned orbit and will be “mainly used to verify multi-band and high-speed satellite communication technology”. After spending ~10 days in Geosynchronous Transfer Orbit, China conducted a circularization burn to place TJS-15 into Geostationary Orbit (GEO). TJS-15 is now at 90.3° E (due south of the Bay of Bengal) with a 0.0° inclination. Launch Video.
As is typical for TJS satellites, China has released little information regarding the satellite’s capabilities and mission.
Reporting from the Joint Commercial Operations cell noted, “The Yuan Wang 6 and Yuan Wang 7 telemetry tracking vessels were both be positioned in the Pacific Ocean to support this launch, suggesting it is of high importance.”
Per Andrew Jones: “The lack of details on the TJS-15 satellite is consistent with statements on earlier TJS missions. The series, which mostly operates in geostationary orbit (GEO), is seen by Western analysts as potentially carrying out classified missions including signals intelligence, early warning missions and satellite inspection activities to support the People’s Liberation Army (PLA).”
In the past 10 years China has launched 14 TJS satellites:
2015 (1): TJS-1 (suspected SIGINT)
2016 (0): No Launches
2017 (1): TJS-2 (suspected Missile Warning)
2018 (1): TJS-3 (suspected satellite inspection)
2019 (1): TJS-4 (suspected SIGINT)
2020 (1): TJS-5 (suspected Missile Warning)
2021 (3): TJS-6 (suspected Missile Warning), TJS-7 (Unknown), & TJS-9 (suspected SIGINT)
2022 (0): No Launches
2023 (1): TJS-10 (unknown)
2024 (3): TJS-11 (unknown), TJS-12 (unknown), TJS-13 (HEO, suspected Missile Warning)
2025 (2): TJS-14 (unknown), TJS-15 (unknown)
11 Mar: China launched Long March-8 Y6 with the fifth batch of 18 Qianfan (SpaceSail) satellites from the Hainan Commercial Space Launch Site, Wenchang International Aerospace City, Hainan Province, China. The Qianfan Constellation is developed by Shanghai SpaceSail Technologies Co., Ltd. to “provide global users with low-latency, high-speed and ultra-reliable satellite broadband internet services”. Launch Video.
This was the first Qianfan launch to use the LM-8 (previous launches had used the LM-6A) and was the first launch from Launch Pad 1, at Wenchang which has been under development for 18 months.
– There are now 2 launch pads at the Hainan site are now operational, making it China’s first commercial spaceport equipped for a variety of launch needs.
With this launch there are now 90 Qianfan satellites on orbit.
Qianfan 73-90 are also known as, Group 5.
Batch Updates:
Batch 1 (launched 6 Aug 2024) : 17 of 18 satellites have raised their average altitude to 1,068.9km. Qianfan 7 (60385) has not maneuvered and may be inoperable.
Batch 2 (launched 15 Oct 2024): 15 of 18 satellites have raised their average altitudes. There is a wide variance between the operational satellites, lowest being 814km and highest at 1,062km. Three of the satellites, Qianfan 27 (61560), Qianfan 28 (61561) and Qianfan 35 (61568) have not maneuvered.
Batch 3 (launched 5 Dec 2024): 18 of 18 satellites have raised their altitude. Two of the satellites, Qianfan 39, 40, and 42 are orbiting at 808km, 850km, and 811km respectively. The other 16 are orbiting between 913-1,069km with 5 of the satellites at 1,054km.
Batch 4: 18 of 18 satellites have raised their altitude. Satellites do not appear to have settled into an operating altitude and are orbiting at average altitudes ranging from 931-998kms.
Editor’s Note: as of 23 Mar 2025 none of the Qianfan 73-90 satellites were in the Spacetrack.org catalog, I’ll have a follow-up report once this information becomes available.
15 Mar: China launched a Long March-2D with the SuperView Neo-3 02 and Tianyan-23 satellites (63208 & 63209) from Jiuquan. SuperView Neo-3 02 is able to image 130km swaths and with 0.5m resolution. Superview Neo-3 02 joins 9 other SuperView Neo satellites in Low Earth Orbit. It is the second of four planned SuperView Neo-3 wide-swath satellites. Launch Video.
Editor’s Note: SuperView Neo-3 02 has yet to be specifically identified in the spacetrack.org catalog. However both SuperView Neo-3 02 and Tianyan-23 satellites are co-planar and orbiting at similar altitudes. For this article I’m assuming SuperView Neo-3 02 is “Object A” (63208).
-SuperView Neo-3 02 is currently orbiting at an average altitude of 502.7km with an inclination of 97.5°. These figures are close to its predecessor, SuperView Neo-3 01 (59510) which is also inclined 97.5° with an average altitude of 500km.
– The Superview Neo constallation is operated by China Sewei Surveying and Mapping Technology Co Ltd (aka China Sewei). Chine Sewei has placed SuperView Neo-3 02 adjacent to Neo-3 01 and Superview Neo-1 01 (52320) and Superview Neo-1 02 (52321). The two Neo-1 satellites are at an average altitude of 523km and are 97.4° inclined.
– China Sewei plans call for a Superview NEO constellation of at least 28 total satellites.
– Per Chinese Social Media Post: One day after launch (16 Mar 2025), “the Kashgar Satellite Ground Receiving Station successfully received the first batch of satellite image data from SuperView-3 02…With an ultra-wide range of 130 kilometers and a resolution of 0.5 meters, the image is clear, with distinct layers, rich details, full colors, uniform image quality, and good radiation consistency. The ground-to-space link and ground system are operating stably, and the satellite has entered the on-orbit test phase.”
– Current Constellation Status
16 Mar: Chinese space operators increased the average altitude of the TJS-3 satellite (43874) ~66km. As a result the satellite is above the GEO belt and drifting West at a rate of 0.845° per day. TJS-3 is a suspected inspector satellite that has moved across the GEO belt exhibiting unusual behavior beginning with its launch in 2018 (see COMSPOC video & LSAS video). Prior to its latest maneuver, TJS-3 had been at 148.4°E placing it in the neighborhood with Gaofen-13 02 (55912) (148.2°E) and SJ-21 (49330) (144.9°E).
21 Mar: I’ve been tracking the status of Yaogan-35/36/39/42 triplet formations for nearly 2 years. I’ve noticed a 5 of the 15 formations appear to be struggling (or at least not following their previous pattern). Here is a status update on the 5 outliers.
Between 6 Nov 2021 and 10 Dec 2023 China conducted 15 LM-2D launches and placed 45 Yaogan satellites into 5 orbital planes (500km SMA and 35° inclination but different RAAN/twist.) Each launch contained 3 satellites which deployed into a Lead, Trail1, Trail2 formation. Each plane had 9 of these satellites, 3 YG-35, 3 YG-36 and 3 YG-39. It appears 4 of the 5 YG-35 triplets are experiencing some difficulties.
Problem Kids: (Lead/Trail1/Trail2)
21 Mar: Many will recall that China launched SJ-25 (62485) on 6 Jan 2025 and announced that it would be “used for the verification of satellite fuel replenishment and life extension service technologies.” We quickly noted that China had placed SJ-25 into a co-planar orbit with SJ-21 which had been used to demonstrate “debris mitigation technology” (it captured a defunct Chinese satellite in GEO and dragged it into a graveyard orbit in early 2022.) SJ-25 appears to have made 3 stationkeeping maneuvers in the past 3 months and is maintaining its position at ~119.5°E. For its part, SJ-21 has not maneuvered but has naturally drifted west from 148.9°E at the time of SJ-25’s launch to 144.2°E on 21 Mar 2025. Without maneuvering SJ-21 is drifting West ~0.125° per day. At this rate it will “pass” SJ-25 in early October 2025.
23 Mar: After decreasing its average altitude to initiate an eastward drift in early February, Luch/Olymp 2 (55841) appears to have found a new neighbor/neighborhood. Russian space operators increased their satellite’s SMA nearly 262kms from 24 Feb – 8 Mar to rejoin the GEO belt at 62.0°E longitude. It appears its new intended collection target is Intelsat 39 (44476) which is at 61.9°E longitude. The Russian satellite is maintaining 15-60km separation from Intelsat 39. Typically Russia will keep Luch/Olymp 2 near its intended target for 4-5 months.
