Analysis of Developments in the Space Domain
10 Nov 2025: China launched a Long March-12 with 9 SatNet LEO (Guowang) Group 13 satellites from the Hainan Commercial Space Launch Site near Wenchang. According to official sources, the satellites entered the preset orbit successfully. This was the sixth Guowang launch to 50° inclination. To date 4 of the launches have use the LM-8A and the remaining two used LM-12. All launches have carried 9 satellites to orbit. It appears China intends to have 30° RAAN differential between their 50° inclined orbits, identical to the spacing of their 86.5° orbits. This will become more apparent as the Groups reach their operating altitude of 1,149.3km. Interestingly, the Group 13 satellites initial altitude is nearly 100km less than that of Group 7 (which also used the LM-12). Could be an indication of larger satellites in Group 13 (or at least more mass). Launch Video.
– With the Group 13 launch there are now 104 satellites in the operational LEO Guowang constellation (see graphics & tables). Additionally, there are 3 Guowang satellites in GEO and China has launched 18 Guowang test satellites.
– China is building out the Guowang constellation with orbits inclined either 50.0° or 86.5°. Currently there are 54 satellites in 6 50.0° orbital planes and 50 satellites in 6 86.5° orbital planes. See Table.
– Summary of Guowang Operational Launches
– Observations
– Deployment Status (all data as of 22 Nov 2025)
Editor’s Comment: The Guowang LEO constellation is beginning to take shape. All of the 86.5° satellites have reached their operating altitude of 1,167.9km and 50% of the 50.0° satellites have reached their operating altitude of 1,149.3km. In both cases the planes are separated by 30° RAAN. I expect the next Guowang launches to head to the 86.5° orbit planes currently occupied by Group 5 and Group 11 to bring the total number of satellites in those planes to 10 and match the other 4x 86.5° orbital planes.
8 Nov 2025: China launched a Long March-11 with 3 Shiyan-32 satellites (66376, 66377 & 66378) from a sea-based platform off the coast of Haiyang. According to official sources, Shiyan-32 A/B/C satellites entered the planned orbits and will be “primarily used for conducting experiments in space-based technologies”. Launch Video.
– All 3 satellites are in a 450x432km 53.0° inclined orbit.
– As is normal for the Shiyan satellite series, China released little information regarding the mission or capabilities.
– However, renderings of at least one of the satellites were released on Chinese social media (see images).
– The 53.0° orbit is also very popular for Starlink and Kuiper satellites. Per SBMS, the SY-21 01-03 are nearly co-planar with dozens of Starlink and Kuiper satellites.
– One press release also noted that “Test 32 Satellite 02 was developed by the Institute of Microsatellite Innovation, Chinese Academy of Sciences, and is mainly used to carry out new space technology experiments…This mission is the 78th satellite launch mission of the Institute of Microsatellite Innovation of the Chinese Academy of Sciences. So far, 217 satellites covering communications, navigation, remote sensing, science, micro-nano and other fields have been successfully launched.”
– China has launched the LM-11 18 times, this was the 6th sea launch.
19 Nov 2025: China launched a LM-2C with the Shijian-30 A, B and C satellites (66545, 66546, & 66547) from Jiuquan. According to official sources, the satellites were deployed into the intended orbits and “will be mainly used for space environment exploration and related technology verification”. Launch Video.
– All three satellites are in 51.8° inclined orbits. As of 22 Nov their average altitudes varied slightly between 519.6-520.6km as China likely intends to increase their orbital spacing in the near term (recall 10:1 rule!)
– At their current RAAN and inclination the SJ-30 satellites are nearly co-planar with dozens of SpaceX Starlink satellites.
-The SJ-30 satellites are orbiting about 25km lower than the 547.2km average altitude maintained by many of the Starlink satellites.
– Per SBMS query there is only one Chinese satellite nearly co-planar with SJ-30…Geesat-4 09 (65127). Geesat-4 09 is inclined 50.0° and has an average altitude of 700km.
– As is normal for the Shijian family of satellites, China has not released any information on mission or capabilities of the SJ-30 trio.
– At their current average altitudes the SJ-30s will have a slightly shorter orbital period than their Starlink counterparts and will frequently pass underneath them.
– In 2024 China released a report that specifically referenced capabilities against Starlink communications. Chinese officials have frequently emphasized the need to neutralize or eliminate these satellites if they threaten national security.
– Starlink has proven particularly resistant to electronic countermeasures (I’m looking at you Russia). For an excellent analysis of the difficulties Starlink presents to Electronic Warfare operations please take a look at James Spreit’s 8 Feb 2024 report.
21 Nov 2025: China launched a LM-3B with the TJS-21 satellite from the Xichang. According to official sources, the satellite entered the planned orbit successfully and “will be mainly used for satellite communication, radio and television, data transmission and other services, as well as for conducting related technical tests and verifications.” Per (the most awesome) Jonathan McDowell’s post, “TJS 21 cataloged in 51° elliptical transfer orbit and is likely heading to a Molniya orbit.” If this proves to be the case look for TJS-21 to synchronize its orbit with SY-10 02 (54878, launched in 2022) which is also in a Molniya (or Highly Elliptical Orbit <HEO>). In addition to SY-10 02, China has 2 other satellites in HEO: SY-10 01 (49258, launched in 2021) and TJS-13 (62188, launched in 2024). All of China’s HEO satellites launched on LM-3Bs from Xichang. China synchronized the orbits of TJS-13 and SY-10 01 so that both reach their apogee over the northern hemisphere at about the same time. If China does the same for TJS-21 and SY-10 02 this will provide them continuous dual satellite coverage of the Northern Hemisphere. Simultaneous missile tracking by multiple satellites provides for greater accuracy and confidence levels when performing the missile warning mission. More to follow as China maneuvers TJS-21 into its operational orbit. See previous Flash for additional background. Launch Video.
November 2025: In early November 2025, a series of electronic interference events highlighted potential threats in Eastern Europe and the Baltic region. On November 2, a “mass AIS spoof event” was detected, stretching from Bornholm to the mid-Gulf of Finland. For about 30 minutes, hundreds or thousands of false AIS messages flooded public tracking services, with a large portion “masquerading as military vessels”. These false signals were characterized as a “deliberate, coordinated attempt” to inject fabricated data, as they lacked names, IMO numbers, or movement tracks and used dead or decommissioned MMSIs. Analysis indicates the incident was not a glitch but an attack that compromised a single AIS base station in Finland, pushing false data to multiple online services at once. Although it affected only web displays—not live maritime receivers—it showed how exploiting a single ground station can produce a large-scale information operation.
– GPS World’s journalist Jesse Khalil explains, “According to confidential sources, a covert Russian military installation in the Królewiec region… is responsible for GPS interference affecting the Baltic states and the Gulf of Finland.”
– Khalili goes on to explain, “According to confidential sources, the facility’s primary mission is to monitor satellites and NATO communications, intending to undermine allied intelligence operations. “
– “Documents obtained by Delfi indicate that the base, located in Pioniersk, is part of Russia’s ‘Tobol’ electronic warfare network.”
– Further reporting indicates “High GPS jamming” was observed over the Pechora Kamenka former air base in Russia, prompting public speculation about whether this base had been “reactivated”.
– GPS World’s journalist Tracy Cozzens also reported in June that Danish News outlets were reporting “In the Gulf of Finland, ships were disappearing from radar and Russian fighter jets were traveling through NATO airspace.”
– 13 member states of the EU have called on the European Commission to respond to the significant increase in GNSS interference:
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14 November 2025: BBC reporter Joe Tidy states that Anthropic reported uncovering a sophisticated hacking campaign in which threat actors—believed with high confidence to be linked to a Chinese state-sponsored group—used its AI model, Claude, to automate parts of an espionage operation. Hackers posed as cybersecurity professionals and leveraged the model to generate code, build tools, and string together tasks that enabled them to breach unnamed organizations, extract data, and filter it for valuable information. While Anthropic says the attackers have been banned and the affected entities notified, cybersecurity experts caution that the company’s claims lack verifiable evidence and may be overstated. The broader cybersecurity industry remains divided on the accurate scale of AI-enabled attacks, noting that current AI tools still struggle with reliability and autonomy.
– From Joe Tidy’s BBC article:
Potential risks to space operations: AI-assisted cyberattacks could target satellite command networks and ground stations, increasing the risk of unauthorized access, data manipulation, service disruption, or loss of spacecraft control in an already high-stakes, high-dependency domain.
12 Nov 2025: Significant solar activity caused the delay of the second New Glenn launch on 12 Nov. Seemed like a good opportunity to take a look at some space weather (and also post some amazing photos of the Northern Lights)! Watch Video.
– From Space.com
From: Beauty of Earth Post
– “The Sun just fired off its strongest solar flare of 2025—an eruption so intense that it may light up half the United States with rare auroras tonight.”
