Analysis of Developments in the Space Domain
8-20 June: As predicted in the last Flash, China maneuvered both SJ-21 (49330) and SJ-25 (62485) into proximity with one another. Both satellites continue to make minor maneuvers and the satellites have ranged in separation from <1km to >100km and it is unknown if they were able to dock with one another (docking is likely required for re-fueling). Tracking the two satellites becomes more challenging once they are within 10km of one another due to resolution limitations of ground based telescopes. COMSPOC noted that the GSSAP satellite USA 270 (41744) adjusted its orbit to remain in proximity of SJ-21/25, likely in order to monitor China’s progress in conducting the world’s first on-orbit refueling in GEO. USA 271 (41645) did not adjust its orbit and is no longer in proximity. Watch COMSPOC Video of maneuvers for all 4 satellites (SJ-21/25 & USA 270/271) from 10-13 June. Also see amazing s2a systems video of close approach. Slingshot Aerospace also put together a video of the point of closest approach. China has not publicly shared any information regarding the ongoing test/demonstration. (I’m here for you guys if you’re willing).
– Per COMSPOC Reporting (current as of 17 Jun 2025):
– Reporting from the Joint Commercial Operations Cell from 17-20 Jun has noted an additional 2 maneuvers from SJ-21 and 3 maneuvers from SJ-25. The intent of the maneuvers is unclear.
Editor’s Note: SJ-21 and SJ-25 remain co-planar and continue to maneuver. If necessary, Chinese space operators will be able to attempt additional docking with minor orbital adjustments. An interesting question is what will China do with both satellites post-test. Assuming SJ-25 proves itself as a capable re-fueling platform I would expect China to place the satellite into a more populated orbital plane in order to support additional satellites…this would mean reducing its current inclination from 10.5° to 0-2°. SJ-21 is an even more interesting question. With a full fuel tank will China use the satellite again for a “debris mitigation” demonstration or place it into a more popular orbital plane in order to conduct GEO monitoring/inspection (with a proven “capture/tow” capability)? Plane changes of this magnitude are VERY rare due to the fuel expenditure required…and maybe that’s the point. With refueling capability China can increase the maneuverability of other satellites equipped to dock with SJ-25, leading to previously unseen tactics.
20 Jun: China launched a Long March-3B with the ZhongXing (ChinaSat)-9C satellite from Xichang. ZhongXing (ZX)-9C is a 5.5 ton satellite designed to provide communications services for live television broadcasts for 15 years. China Satellite Communications Co Ltd will operate the satellite and has announced its intention to use ZX-9C to replace the aging ZX-9 (33051) which was launched in 2008. Assuming this is correct, China will place ZX-9C into GEO at ~92.2°E and eventually maneuver ZX-9 into a graveyard orbit. Launch Video.
22 Jun: China continues to evolve the formations of the 15 Yaogan triplets (45 satellites) it launched between 2021-2023. While none of the triplets remain in their original configuration of Lead-Trail1-Trail2, China continues to actively maintain the orbits of at least 35 of the 45 satellites.
YG-36 05 & YG-39 01-05 (6 Triplets, 18 Satellites)
YG-35 01-05 & YG-36 01-04 (9 Triplets, 27 Satellites)
Editor’s Comment: None of the 15 triplets are in their original formations. China continues to maintain 6 Lead/Trail1 formations. Only 6 of the 15 Lead satellites are maintaining their orbits. China is maintaining the orbits of 14 of the 15 Trail1 satellites at ~516km. China is maintaining the orbits of 14 of the 15 Trail2 satellites at ~497km.
Historical Context: Recall that for the first 2 years these satellites remained in predictable formation with one another, with one lead satellite about 5-7 minutes ahead of the first trail satellite (Trail1) which was itself about 1-3 minutes ahead of the second trail satellite (Trail2). In the 8 April Integrity Flash I noted that China appeared to be “pulling the plug” on the first 9 triplets (YG-35 01-05 & YG-36 01-04) by raising the average altitude of only the Trail1 satellites. Then in the 4 May edition, I noticed China raised the average altitudes of both the Lead and Trail1 satellites in the remaining 6 triplets without raising the average altitude of their Trail2 counterparts. As a result none of the 15 YG-35/36/39 triplets have maintained their original formations.
18 Jun: Russia launched an Angara 5 equipped with a Briz-M upperstage from Plesetsk carrying what is believed to be a 14F166A satellite, aka Cosmos 2589 (64467). Cosmos 2589 was developed at ISS Reshetnev under a December 2017 contract from the Ministry of Defense. Research from Bart Henrdrickx links the development of the Cosmos 2589 with TsNIIKhM (aka CNIIHM Insitute). TsNIIKhM/CNIIHM has been linked to Russian inspection/anti-satellite programs. The Russian Ministry of Defense launch announcement noted the launch of multiple “satellites,” however there is currently only 1 active object identified. The Cosmos 2589 may be a large satellite platform for one or more Nivilir-like “inspectors” or “satellite killers” in GEO (see Cosmos 2519 & Cosmos 2542). This was the 5th launch of the Angara-5. Launch Video.
– Cosmos 2589 is currently in a super-synchronous orbit with an apogee of 51,111.7km and perigee of 20,269.1km. It has an inclination of 1.1°.
– These orbital values are similar to those noted in an environmental statement for the 14F166 project the Angara-5 and Briz-M in 2023.
– From Anatoly Zak:
– The linkage between the Nivilir and 14F166A program stems from a 2017 contract in which a Russian company, ISS Reshetnev, received a contract for a part of the work on the 14F166 satellite from Moscow-based TsNIIKhM. TsNIIKhM is known to specialize in the development of anti-satellite and inspector systems.
– Per Bart Hendrickx:
Editor’s Note: This is a significant development which will require careful tracking for the foreseeable future. Russia has already proven its willingness to place suspicious LEO satellites (Cosmos 2558, 2576 and 2588) into co-planar orbits with high-value US reconnaissance satellites, and could follow similar tactics with Cosmos 2589. From reporting noted above Cosmos 2589 is a large satellite carrying an unknown number of sub-satellites manufactured by a Russian company linked to the Nivilir program. After conducting on-orbit testing (this is the first Nivilir-like capability for Russia in GEO), Russia could decide to follow a similar playbook and maneuver the Cosmos 2589 (or its successors) into plane matched orbits with select target satellites in GEO and then release a sub-satellite to hold those assets at risk.
In the 8 Jun edition of the Flash we took a look back at Russia’s Cosmos 2519 on-orbit anti-satellite test from July 2017-June 2018. The follow up test occurred the following year with the launch of Cosmos 2542 in November 2019. Cosmos 2542 would eventually launch a sub-satellite, Cosmos 2543, which then maneuvered to place itself in a position to observe a high-value American satellite USA 245. Below is another excerpt from the most excellent Secure World Foundation (SWF) 2024 Global Counterspace Capabilities Report describing the activities of Cosmos 2542 and its sub-satellites, Cosmos 2543 & Object E from Dec 2019 – Aug 2020.
– On November 25, 2019, Russia conducted another launch of a Soyuz-2-1v from Plesetsk with an announced military payload on board. The satellite was catalogued by the US military as Cosmos 2542 (2019-079A, 44797) in a 97.9° inclination and 370 by 860 km orbit.
– The mission of the satellite as announced by Russia was to conduct space surveillance as well as Earth remote sensing. Outside experts have indicated it (was) likely the second satellite in the Nivelir 14F150 series.
– On December 6, Cosmos 2542 released a small subsatellite that was catalogued by the US military as Cosmos 2543 (2019-079D, 44835) and publicly announced by Russia.
– Cosmos 2543 remained within 2 km of Cosmos 2542 for three days before it conducted a series of maneuvers to raise its apogee to 590 km by December 16.
– Subsequent analysis by amateur observers strongly suggests that the purpose of these maneuvers was to place Cosmos 2543 in an orbit where it (could) observe a classified US intelligence satellite, USA 245 (2013-043A, 39232).
– The orbits of Cosmos 2543 and USA 245 (were) synchronized such that Cosmos 2543 came within 20 km of USA 245 several times in January 2020.
– After January 2020 Cosmos 2543 periodically came within 150 to 300 km of USA 245 while the latter (was) illuminated by the Sun (enabling Cosmos 2543 to) observe both sides of USA 245 continuously for up to a week at a time.
– The close proximity of Cosmos 2543 to USA 245 sparked concerns from the US military. General John Raymond, then Chief of Space Operations for the USSF and Commander of USSPACECOM, stated, “We view this behavior as unusual and disturbing,” and compared it to the 2017 separation of Cosmos 2523 that the US military considers to be a weapons test.
– In a response published by RIA Novosti, the Russian Foreign Ministry denied those accusations, claimed that they were part of a propaganda campaign against Moscow, and stated that Cosmos 2543 did not pose a threat to USA 245 and did not violate any norms or principles of international law.
– A few weeks later, it appears both countries made changes in their satellites’ orbits to increase the separation of the two objects.
– Cosmos 2542 was decommissioned in May 2023 and re-entered the atmosphere on October 24, 2023.
– In June 2020, Cosmos 2543 made a series of maneuvers to place it into RPO with Cosmos 2535, including close approaches within 60 kilometers.
– A month later, the Russian Ministry of Defense issued a press report stating that the two satellites had conducted a close-up study of a domestic satellite with the help of specialized equipment on a small satellite.
– On July 15, a small piece of orbital debris was spotted in the vicinity of the two satellites that appeared to have separated from Cosmos 2543 at a relative velocity of between 140 and 186
meters per second (313 to 415 miles per hour).
– The US military catalogued the released object (Object E, 2019-079E, 45915) on July 16 in a 783 x 504 km orbit, with Cosmos 2543 still in a 617 x 603 km orbit. Jonathan McDowell noted
that the release occurred while the objects passed over Plesetsk.
– The event was similar in nature to the release of Cosmos 2523 in October 2017, and eventually, two more pieces of small debris were catalogued in proximity to the satellites.
– In a press release, USSPACECOM characterized the event as a space-based satellite weapons test and stated that the Russian satellites “displayed characteristics of a space-based weapon.”
– The head of the United Kingdom’s Space Directorate, Air Vice Marshal Harvey Smyth, also released a public statement on Twitter expressing concerns and calling on Russia to avoid further
testing.
– The following day, the Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs again denied those claims, stating that this was part of a campaign to discredit Russia’s activities in space and that Russia was committed to the peaceful exploration and use of outer space by all states.
– Cosmos 2535 and Cosmos 2543 remained in close proximity through August 2020, and by August 13, they were joined by Cosmos 2536.
– In late September 2020, Cosmos 2535 and Cosmos 2536 were close enough that they are presumed to have docked.
– In mid-October, Cosmos 2536 separated away from Cosmos 2535 to a distance of 20 kilometers.
– Cosmos 2543 re-entered the Earth’s atmosphere August 26, 2024.
