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ISSUE 148 | 28 jun 2026

The integrity flash

Analysis of Developments in the Space Domain

SJ-31 In Position to Monitor GEO from an Unusual Highly Elliptical Orbit (HEO)

16 June 2026: China launched a Long March 3B/E from Xichang carrying Shijian-31 (SJ-31) (69570). Initial TLE data from SpaceTrack indicates the satellite is operating in a highly elliptical orbit (HEO) with an inclination of approximately 63.4° and an eccentricity of 0.69—consistent with a Molniya-type orbit. The satellite has an orbital period of approximately 12.5 hours, completing just under two orbits per day. China has released little information on SJ-31, stating only that it will be used for “space environment detection.” Launch Video.

Molniya orbits take advantage of Earth’s oblateness (J2 perturbation) at the critical inclination of approximately 63.4° to stabilize the Argument of Perigee over time. SJ-31 is China’s fifth HEO satellite, joining SY-10 01 (49258), SY-10 02 (54878), TJS-13 (62188), and TJS-21 (66586). China has synchronized the orbits of SY-10 01 with TJS-13 and SY-10 02 with TJS-21 to provide “dual ball” missile warning coverage over the Northern Hemisphere. While all 5 satellites share similar inclination and eccentricity values, China has deployed SJ-31 into an orbit unsuitable for detecting heat signatures rising over the Arctic; rather the satellite is in a unique position loiter over the equator, an advantageous position to monitor satellites orbiting in the Geosynchronous belt. Adding to the intrigue, with SJ-31’s orbit, characterizing its capabilities will be quite sporting…maybe impossible.

SJ-31’s orbital configuration is unusual. Traditional Molniya orbits are oriented to place apogee over the northern hemisphere, typically achieved with an Argument of Perigee near 270° (China’s other 4 HEO satellites have this trait), which maximizes dwell time at high northern latitudes. For comparison, Shiyan-10 02 (54878) operates in a more typical Molniya orbit, with apogee positioned over the northern hemisphere and an Argument of Perigee near 270°, prioritizing high-latitude coverage.

SJ-31 instead has an Argument of Perigee of approximately 171°, placing apogee just south of the equator as the satellite approaches its ascending node. This results in extended dwell time over equatorial regions rather than the Arctic.

 

LM-3B Lift Off with SJ-31 & Mission Patch (nasaspaceflight.com)

Comparing Traditional Molniya Orbit with Apogee Over the Northern Hemisphere (above) &
SJ-31’s Agogee which is over the equatorial region (below) (saberastro.com)

SJ-31 intersects the equatorial plane as it heads toward apogee every 12 hours and 30 minutes. Because its orbital period is slightly longer than the standard 12-hour Molniya orbit, the satellite does not cross the equatorial plane at the same longitude on each pass. Instead, the crossing location shifts slightly along the GEO belt with each orbit.

Overview: SJ-31’s HEO Orbit Contrasted with 6 US SBIRS GEO Satellites (saberastro.com)

When comparing equivalent crossings—such as one ascending-node pass to the next ascending-node pass—the longitude shifts by approximately 15.7° per cycle (see table). Because the satellite completes just under 2 orbits per day, these shifts occur in two interleaved sequences (odd and even orbit passes), each progressing by approximately the same amount.

The result is a gradual longitudinal progression around the GEO belt. Rather than repeatedly crossing the same region, SJ-31 effectively “walks” its intersection with the equatorial plane around GEO. At this approximate rate, the satellite completes a full 360° progression around the GEO belt in roughly 12 days. This orbital geometry is well-suited for observing the entire geostationary orbital regime.

SJ-31 crosses the equatorial plane at altitudes roughly 2,000–2,500 km above where GEO satellites reside, providing recurring, safe, and extended opportunities to observe and track GEO residents, although the distances involved likely limit imaging to unresolved detection. Other types of intelligence collection sensors could also benefit from this geometry.

SJ-31 Projected Equatorial Crossings 25 Jun – 7 Jul 2026
Due to SJ-31’s 12.5hr Orbital Period the Satellite Circles the Entire GEO Belt Every 12 Days
(saberastro.com)

Table Showing Estimated Times & Values of SJ-31 Crossing the Equatorial Plane

For interested, non-Chinese observers, identifying SJ-31’s sensors and capabilities will take some creativity. At perigee, SJ-31 operates at just under 2,000 km—well above typical LEO imaging satellites (400–600 km). At this distance, even the best imaging satellite could only hope to get a few pixels of SJ-31 as it speeds through perigee. At apogee, it remains thousands of kilometers away from known GEO inspection satellites, making high-resolution observation impossible for typical GEO inspectors like the US GSSAP vehicles.

If China ever decided to have SJ-31 intersect the equatorial plane at GEO altitude (~35,786 km), this could be achieved with a relatively modest propulsion maneuver. Specifically, a retrograde burn of approximately 50 m/s at perigee would lower apogee to roughly 36,671 km, resulting in SJ-31 passing directly through the GEO neighborhood as it completes its orbit.

A 50 m/sec Retrograde Maneuver at Perigee Would Result in SJ-31 Passing
Through the Equatorial Plane at 35,786km

With SJ-31, Chinese space operators have displayed orbital mechanics mastery and more than a little creativity. While Molniya orbits are well understood, this specific orientation—and its resulting relationship with GEO—is not typical. SJ-31’s orbit—and its evolving relationship with the GEO belt—is mandatory viewing.

Birds of a Feather: A Look at TJS-20, TJS-23 and TJS-25

25 Jun 2026: In the 14 June Flash we looked at both the Westward re-location of TJS-11 (59020) and the launch of TJS-25 (69474). I noted that TJS-11’s maneuver might be linked to the intended TJS-25 location and this appears to be the case. On 24 June spacetrack.org data shows TJS-25 parked at 120.2°E (TJS-11’s previous position was also 120.2°E).

There are several hints that TJS-20, TJS-23 and TJS-25 may have related missions, although exactly what that mission might be remains unknown.

  • China launched all 3 using a LM-5 with an extended fairing
  • China released identical public statements regarding the missions of each of the satellites, “multi-band and high-speed communication technology validation tests.”
  • The mission patches for TJS-20/23/25 seemed related (you know I’m a sucker for PatchInt).
  • China has chosen to park TJS-20, TJS-23 and TJS-25 at nearly equal distances from one another. The 3 satellites are evenly spaced with ~40,000km between them, TJS-20 to the west, TJS-25 in the center and TJS-23 to the east (see graphic).
  • China launched TJS-20, TJS-23, and TJS-25 into 6.0° inclined orbits. TJS-20 and -23 were launched just 2 months apart and are nearly co-planar with nearly equal inclination and RAAN. All had initial RAAN values between 300-330° to take advantage of solar/lunar gravity to naturally reduce inclination for the next 5-6 years (more on this later).

China Used the LM-5 with Extended Fairing to Launch TJS-11/20/23/25
(SpaceNews)

Birds of a Feather? TJS-20, 23 & 25 All Launched Using LM-5 With Extended Fairing
(nasaspaceflight.com)

Family Photo? China Has Parked TJS-25 Equal Distance from TJS-20 and TJS-23
(2D above & 3D below)
(saberastro.com)

About those orbits:

  • TJS-20 Launched 23 Oct 2025 into 6.0° inclination & RAAN of 299°
  • TJS-23 launched 20 Dec 2025 into a 6.0° inclination & RAAN of 298°
  • TJS-25 launched 11 Jun 2026 into a 6.0° inclination & RAAN of 330°

Notice the RAAN values for all 4 satellites begin in the 270-330° range. Turns out for objects in GEO, the Sun and Moon’s combined gravity causes the RAAN of GEO objects to increase ~6.67° per year. Without stationkeeping maneuvers GEO objects will gradually circle the Laplace Pole (see next article) over the course of ~54 years (360°/6.67° = 53.97 years). For objects with RAAN values between 270-330° this changing RAAN results in a natural DECREASE in inclination of ~0.85°/year. Inclination will continue to decline until RAAN >0° at which point inclination will begin to increase (and will continue to increase until RAAN >180° and then begins to decrease.)

While we’re still too early in the operational lifetimes of TJS-20/23/25 to see this phenomenon play out, China has used this technique with other satellites. As examples see the Celestrak graphs for the following: 1) Gaofen-13 02 (55912, launched in 2023 into 2.4° inclination & RAAN of 300°); 2) TJS-11 (launched in early 2024 into 5.5° inclination & RAAN of 320°; and 3) Yaogan-41 (launched late 2023 into 5.0° inclination & RAAN of 308°). You can most clearly see the pattern playing out with GF-13 02 as its RAAN recently flipped from 359° to 1° and the inclination is just now beginning to arc upward.

GF-13 02 Inclination & RAAN History from Jun 2023 – Jun 2026
Notice Declining Inclination As RAAN Precesses from 300° through 359°
RAAN Flipped in Jun 2026 & Inclination is Now Beginning to Increase
(Celestrak.org)

TJS-11 (top) and YG-41 (below) Inclination & RAAN History from Launch – Jun 2026
Inclination Will Continue to Decrease as RAAN Precesses from 300° through 359°
(Celestrak.org)

China used the “inclination biased” technique and launched TJS-20/23/25 into orbital planes with naturally decreasing inclination for the first half of their operational life and then slowly increase over the second half. If mission tolerances allow (and I assume they do for these particular satellites) China will be able to avoid fuel consuming inclination stationkeeping maneuvers for more than a decade. Average inclination stationkeeping requires ~50m/sec per year, so this technique will save ~500m/sec of fuel over the course of 10 years. Decreasing fuel requirements enables a couple of options: 1) extended lifespan of satellite; or 2) decreased fuel mass allowing for greater mass budget for payload.

10 Year Orbital Plane (Inclination + RAAN) Projection For TJS-20/23/25
China Will Remain at Below Original Inclination for More than a Decade
& Save 100s of m/sec in Fuel Requirements for Each Satellite
(Celestrak.org)

ASTRO Training Time: North/South Stationkeeping in GEO

First, a huge thank you to Jack Anthony and Richard “Oz” Osedacz to helping me understand the various gravitational forces which dominate in GEO and how satellite operators work to keep their systems in operation. We’re still getting after it, I very much appreciate their patience and willingness to impart their expertise on anyone willing to learn! Everything you see below is a result of our discussions and training materials they were gracious enough to share with me. I have a few more calls with “The Oz” on the schedule!

Lunisolar gravitational perturbations — the combined gravitational tug of the Sun and Moon — represent the most consequential force acting on a GEO orbit plane. Together, they torque the satellite’s orbital angular momentum vector, causing the orbit plane to tilt away from the equator. This manifests as a change in orbital inclination at a rate of approximately 0.85 degrees per year. A satellite launched into a perfect zero-inclination geostationary orbit would, if left unmanaged, see its inclination grow steadily, eventually reaching a maximum of roughly 15 degrees before cycling back down — a process that takes approximately 54 years to complete. As inclination grows, the satellite’s ground track traces an ever-larger figure-eight pattern centered on its assigned longitude, carrying it progressively further north and south of the equator each day. For missions requiring a fixed ground point — virtually all GEO communications and many intelligence missions — this is unacceptable. To stay in mission GEO satellites which require minimal inclination must perform North/South (N/S) Stationkeeping.

North/South stationkeeping: Expensive!

Satellite operators conduct N/S stationkeeping to maintain the orbit plane parallel to Earth’s equator — or equivalently, to keep the orbital inclination near zero — so the satellite remains geostationary rather than merely geosynchronous. And it is, by a wide margin, the most fuel-intensive component of GEO stationkeeping.

The challenge is the relentless lunisolar torque described above. At roughly 0.85 degrees per year of inclination change, a satellite that goes even a few years without N/S stationkeeping will develop a noticeable north-south excursion. For a satellite required to maintain an inclination below 0.05 degrees, maneuvers must be performed frequently — typically every one to two weeks.

The physics of N/S stationkeeping are demanding because changing an orbit’s plane requires a velocity change perpendicular to the orbit — essentially, the satellite must thrust “sideways” relative to its direction of travel. At GEO velocities of approximately 3,075 meters per second, even a one-degree change in the orbit plane requires a delta-V of roughly 54 meters per second. Annual N/S stationkeeping budgets for a tightly controlled geostationary satellite typically run 45 to 50 meters per second per year — roughly an order of magnitude more than East/West stationkeeping. Over a 15-year mission life, N/S stationkeeping alone can consume the vast majority of a satellite’s total propellant load. It is the single largest driver of GEO satellite mass, fuel capacity, and ultimately, mission lifetime.

The orbit pole and the Laplacian Plane

To understand N/S stationkeeping strategy — and to understand how China is exploiting the natural dynamics of the GEO environment — it is essential to understand the concept of the orbit pole and the Laplacian Plane.

An orbit’s orientation in space can be described by its angular momentum vector, which points perpendicular to the orbit plane. For a GEO satellite, this vector — often called the orbit pole — can be conveniently represented in a two-dimensional polar plot where the radial distance from the center represents orbital inclination and the angular position represents the Right Ascension of the Ascending Node (RAAN) (there was an example of this in the previous article and another one below). A satellite in a perfect geostationary orbit (zero inclination) sits at the origin of this plot. As the lunisolar perturbation increases the inclination, the orbit pole moves outward from the center.

Crucially, the orbit pole does not simply move radially outward. The Sun and Moon torque the orbit to precess in a clockwise rotation (as seen in the standard polar plot) around a specific point known as the Laplacian Pole (also called the Invariant Pole). The Laplacian Plane is the equilibrium plane of the Earth-Moon-Sun system — a plane perpendicular to the vector sum of all the angular momentum vectors of the relevant bodies. For GEO, the Laplacian Pole lies at approximately 7.3 degrees inclination and near 0 degrees RAAN — tilted toward the vernal equinox in the celestial sphere.

This means that the natural, unperturbed evolution of a GEO orbit pole is not a straight line but a circle centered on the Laplacian Pole. The radius of this circle depends on the satellite’s initial conditions at the time it reaches GEO. A satellite launched into zero inclination starts at the origin of the polar plot, approximately 7.3 degrees from the Laplace Pole, and will trace a circle of that radius over the full 54 year precession cycle. The inclination grows as the orbit pole swings away from the Earth’s equatorial pole, reaching a maximum of roughly 15 degrees when it passes through the far side of the circle, then decreasing as it swings back.

See below for a (hopefully) helpful graphic which depicts the epic journey of the Intelsat III F6 (04297) communications satellite. This particular satellite launched in 1970 and recently completed its Circumnavigation of the Laplacian Pole!

Visualization of Full 54 Year RAAN/Inclination Cycle
RAAN Increases (known as Precession in the Biz) an average of ~6.67° per Year. This is a clockwise direction on the Radial Plot (RAAN is clockface values)
Due to Sun/Moon Gravitational Forces, Inclination (radial values) Increases when the Satellite’s RAAN is 0-179° and Decreases when RAAN is 180-359°
In ~54 years, the Satellite will circle the Laplacian Pole (Inclination ~7.3° & RAAN 0°) (TLEs provided by Celestrak)

GEO operators have long understood how to use this geometry to their advantage. The traditional “full-band” N/S stationkeeping strategy begins by positioning the orbit pole at a RAAN near 270 degrees and an inclination equal to the maximum allowable deadband. From this starting point, natural lunisolar precession carries the inclination downward toward zero while rotating the RAAN toward 90 degrees. The operator simply waits — burning no fuel — until the inclination rises back to the deadband limit on the other side, at which point a maneuver resets the orbit pole back to the starting position and the cycle repeats.

This is the critical insight: depending on where a satellite’s orbit pole begins its journey around the Laplacian Pole, the inclination may naturally decrease for an extended period without any stationkeeping maneuvers at all. A satellite launched into just the right combination of inclination and RAAN can ride the natural precession for years, watching its inclination fall toward zero while its competitors burn precious fuel to achieve the same result.

23 June 2026: China launched a LM-7A with the TJS-26A (69674) from Wenchang. Chinese official media reported the satellite entered the planned orbit and “will be mainly used for services such as satellite communications, broadcasting and television, and data transmission, as well as for conducting related technology test verifications.” TJS-26A’s mission description is an exact (albeit generic) match to the descriptions China released for both TJS-14 (62804) and TJS-22 (66990). TJS-26A will likely spend ~10 days in Geosynchronous Transfer Orbit (GTO) before Chinese space operators circularize its orbit and park the satellite into its GEO slot. Launch Video.

A geosynchronous transfer orbit (GTO) is a highly elliptical Earth orbit used as an intermediate step to place satellites into geosynchronous or geostationary orbit.

  • TJS-26A is currently in a highly elliptical orbit (e=.73) with an apogee of 35,819km and perigee of only 186km.
  • We’ll need to wait a few more days to determine where China parks TJS-26A. Perhaps its location will give us some clues of relationships with other TJS satellites currently in orbit.
  • This is the first TJS satellite to have an “A” suffix, we’ll need to wait to see if there is a TJS-26B down the road.

Big Red Board Announces Succsessful Launch (above) & TJS-26A Mission Patches (below) (nasaspaceflight.com)

TJS-26A Prepares for Launch (nasaspaceflight.com)

27 Jun 2026: TJS-26A in GTO. Eccentricity = .731 Apogee = 35,819km Perigee = 186km (celestrak.org & saberastro.com)

China’s Growing TJS Catalog (15 of 24 Have Publicly Unknown Missions(Gunther’s Space Page, Celestrak.org)

23 Jun 2026: Several observers noted the release of a sub-satellite from the fourth flight of the Chinese Shenlong (Devine Dragon) Spaceplane (67689). The sub-satellite has been named “Object H” (69673) and has maneuvered. Space tracking data shows the object decreased its SMA ~3.6km from 26-27 June 2026. Shenlong does not appear to have made a similar maneuver and is now in a larger orbit than Object H. As we know from the 10:1 rule, Object H now has a slightly shorter orbital period than Shenlong and will slowly move away from its parent satellite. As of 28 June, Object H was 633km from its parent spacecraft. Just for fun: Here’s a link to a 2022 Tik Tok video with the modified LM-2F fairing.

– China launched the latest Shenlong mission on 6 Feb 2026. China also launched its space plane in September 2020 (2-day duration), Aug 2022-May 2023 (276-day duration) and then Dec 2023-Sep 2024 (266-day duaration). In previous missions the spaceplane has released smaller objects on orbit and then conducted RPO with those objects.

– From 26-27 June Chinese space operators reduced Object H’s SMA ~3.6km. Though a small adjustment, the maneuver shortened Object H’s orbital period by ~3 seconds and the two satellites began to separate 6km every orbit (works out to about 90km every 24 hours).

  • Depending on how China executed the maneuver, reducing Object H’s SMA 3.6km requires a delta-v of 1-2 m/sec.

 

22-28 June 2026: Orbit History shows Object H Maneuver (above) resulting in Separation with Parent Spaceplane (below) (celestrak.org)

27 Jun: Overview of Shenlong and Object H Orbits (saberastro.com)

10 March 2026: Ground-Based Telescope View of China SpacePlane (Felix Schofbanker)

Modified LM-2F Fairing Used For Shenlong’s 2nd Mission (https://pbs.twimg.com)

22 Jun: LEO Labs Analysis Showing Object H Deployment (@LeoLabs_Space via X)

Notional Rendering of Shenlong Space Plane (space.com)

Only public (in this case on-orbit) image (@DutchSpace via X)

17 Jun 2026: China launched a Long March-12 with the 22d group of Guowang (China SatNet LEO) satellites from Wenchang. According to official sources, the 9 satellites (69572-69580) entered the preset orbit successfully. As with other Wenchang launches, China placed the satellites into an 50.0° inclined orbit. China launched Group 22 into an orbit west of Group 2 and east of Group 6. Because the Group 22 satellites have an initial average altitude ~250km lower than the Groups 2 and 6 the Group 22 satellites will precess to the west at a greater rate (see graphic) and I suspect Group 22 will eventually become co-planar with Group 2. Once this happens (2-3 months from now) the total number of satellites in that plane will be 18.

There are now 179 operational Guowang satellites in LEO (there are also 3 GEO satellites associated with Guowang). As of 20 Jun 2026, 21 of 22 Guowang groups have reached their operational altitudes and the satellites appear to be much more reliable than their Qianfan counterparts. It appears China may have paused launching to conduct testing over the past two months as this is the first operational Guowang launch since 8 April 2026 (70 day interval). Average time between launch for the first 21 groups was just 24 days. With a stated goal of reaching 310 satellites on orbit by 2027, China will need to launch 131 satellites in the next 5.5 months. Group 22 Launch Video.

– China is building out the Guowang constellation with orbits inclined either 50.0° or 86.5°. Currently there are 119 satellites in 12x 50.0° orbital planes (9 satellites/plane) and 60 satellites in 6x 86.5° orbital planes (10 satellites/plane). Orbit planes have a 30° RAAN separation.

– Launch Summary + number of days to target SMA…1,167.9km for 86.5° or 1,149.3km for 50.0°

  • Group 1 (16 Dec 2024): 10 sats on LM-5B. 86.5° inclination (110 days)
  • Group 2 (11 Feb 2025): 9 sats on LM-8A. 50.0° inclination (77 days)
  • Group 3 (28 Apr 2025): 10 sats on LM-5B. 86.5° inclination (34 days)
  • Group 4 (5 Jun 2025): 5 sats on LM-6A. 86.5° inclination (with Gp 9) (106 days)
  • Group 5 (27 Jul 2025): 5 sats on LM-6A. 86.5° inclination (with Gp 15) (58 days)
  • Group 6 (30 Jul 2025): 9 sats on LM-8A. 50.0° inclination (103 days)
  • Group 7 (4 Aug 2025): 9 sats on LM-12. 50.0° inclination. (117 days)
  • Group 8 (13 Aug 2025): 10 sats on LM-5B. 86.5° inclination (32 days)
  • Group 9 (17 Aug 2025): 5 sats on LM-6A. 86.5° inclination (with Gp 4) (52 days)
  • Group 10 (25 Aug 2025): 9 sats on LM-8A. 50.0° inclination. (86 days)
  • Group 11 (27 Sep 2025): 5 sats on LM-6A. 86.5° inclination. (with Gp 21) (54 days)
  • Group 12 (16 Oct 2025): 9 sats on a LM-8A. 50.0° inclination (85 days)
  • Group 13 (10 Nov 2025): 9 sats on a LM-12. 50.0° inclination (95 days)
  • Group 14 (6 Dec 2025): 9 sats on a LM-8A. 50.0° inclination. (86 days)
  • Group 15 (8 Dec 2025): 5 sats on a LM-6A. 86.5° inclination (with Gp 5) (58 days)
  • Group 16 (11 Dec 2025): 9 sats on a LM-12. 50.0° inclination. (102 days)
  • Group 17 (25 Dec 2025): 9 sats on LM-8A. 50.0° inclination. (74 days)
  • Group 18 (13 Jan 2026): 9 sats on LM-8A. 50.0° inclination (63 days)
  • Group 19 (19 Jan 2026): 9 sats on LM-12. 50.0° inclination (64 days)
  • Group 20 (12 Mar 2026): 9 sats on LM-8A. 50.0° inclination (57 days)
  • Group 21 (8 Apr 2026): 5 sats on LM-6A. 86.5° inclination (with Gp 11) (55 days)
  • Group 22 (17 Jun 2026): 9 sats on LM-12. 50.0° inclination (heading toward Gp 2)

 

– Additional Notes from China In Space:

  • “GuoWang satellites launched atop of the Long March 12 and the Long March 8A use the mega-constellations’ small satellite platform, weighing about 695 kilograms each. A large satellite platform, around thirty percent bigger and weighing up to 1,000 kilograms, is launched via the Long March 5B and Long March 6A. Both platforms utilize electric propulsion systems to maneuver in orbit, powered by two solar panels.”

Editor’s Note: The small satellite platform is used for the 50° inclined orbits while the larger platform heads to the 86.5° inclined planes. Unfortunately China is continuing its irresponsible launch protocol of depositing the upperstage rocket bodies in orbits which will take centuries to decay and re-enter the Earth’s atmosphere. For this launch the LM-12 rocket body (69581) is in a 910x798km orbit…it will remain in orbit 200-400 years. See S2A systems video of the Rocket Body in orbit.

20 June (top) and 28 Jun (below) Equatorial View of Guowang’s 15 Operational Orbital Planes. Notice Group 22 Slowly Heading West Toward Group 2 and Further from Group 6. (saberastro.com)

20 June 2026: 6x 86.5° Inclined Planes 30° RAAN Offset. 10x Satellites / Plane (saberastro.com)

20 Jun 2026: 12x 50° Inclined Planes with 30° RAAN Offset
9 Satellites / Group. Group 22 Heading Toward Group 2 Orbit Plane(saberastro.com)

18 June 2026: Image of 9 Group 22 Satellites (s2a systems via Linked In)

20 June 2026 View: China Launched Group 22 into Orbit plane East of Group 6 and West of Group 2. Due to Group 22’s lower SMA, its RAAN will shift west at a faster rate than Groups 2 or 6. China will time SMA increases to result in Group 22 being coplanar with Group 2. It typically takes 2-3 months for Guowang Satellites to Reach their Operational SMA. (saberastro.com)

China: Update on Qianfan Group 12 Orbit Location

When we published the 14 June 2026 Flash the Qianfan Group 12 orbits had yet to be cataloged. Recall that on 5 Jun 2026 China launched a LM-8 with 18 Qianfan satellites (69401-69418) from Wenchang. It now appears that the satellites are intended to be co-planar with Group 1.

There are now 200 Qianfan satellites in orbit. Of the 12 Qianfan launches 7 have used the LM-6A from Taiyuan, 4 have used the LM-8 from Hainan (Wenchang) and one has used the LM-12B from Jiuquan.

– All Qianfan planes are inclined 89° with a 20° of RAAN offset between each plane. With the Group 11 launch, 9 planes are in use. SpaceSail may augment Group 2 due to 15 of 18 satellites failing to reach their operational SMA of 1,069km.

Constellation Summary:

Of 200 Qianfan satellites on orbit, 87 have reached their operational altitudes of 1,069kms.

  • Group 1 (60379-60396) (LM-6A launched 6 Aug 2024) : 17 of 18 satellites reached operational SMA. Qianfan 7 (60385) has not maneuvered and may be inoperable.
  • Group 2 (61552-61569) (LM-6A launched 15 Oct 2024): Only 3 of 18 satellites (Qianfan 29, 30 & 32) reached their operational SMA.
  • Group 3 (62238-62255) (LM-6A launched 5 Dec 2024): 16 of 18 satellites reached their operational SMA. Qianfan 39 (807km) & 42 (810km) likely inoperable. Group 3 is co-planar with Group 10.
  • Group 4 (62785-62802)(LM-6A launched 23 Jan 2025) : 18 of 18 satellites reached their operational SMA.
  • Group 5 (63159-63176) (LM-8 launched 11 Mar 2025): 16 of 18 satellites reached their operational SMA. Qianfan 77 (904km) & 83 (1,028km) likely inoperable. Co-planar w/ Group 8.
  • Group 6 (66033-66050) (LM-6A launched 17 Oct 2025): 17 of 18 satellites reached their operational SMA. Qianfan 101 (66043) (800km) likely inoperable.
  • Group 7 (68636-68653): (LM-8 launched 7 Apr 2026): All 18 satellites in process of raising their SMA. Range 1,024-1,063km as of 11 Jun 2026.
  • Group 9 (69073-69090): (LM-6 launched 12 May 2026): 17 of 18 satellites in process of raising their SMA. Qianfan 137 (69083) lagging. Range 850-880km as of 11 Jun 2026.
  • Group 10 (69104-69121): (LM-8 launched 17 May 2026): All 18 satellites in process of raising their SMA. Initial SMA range is 825-850km. Group 10 is co-planar with Group 3.
  • Group 8 (69325-69326): (LM-12B launched 1 Jun 2026): Two satellites launched to 1,034km. Both satellites are in the process of raising their altitudes. Co-planar with Group 5.
  • Group 11 (69382-69399): (LM-6A launched 4 Jun 2026): All 18 satellites in process of raising their SMA. Initial SMA range is 805-807km.
  • Group 12 (69401-69418): (LM-8 launched 5 Jun 2026): All 18 satellites in process of raising their SMA. Range 810-820km as of 20 June 2026. Co-planar with Group 1.

20 June 2026: Polar View of Current Qianfan Constellation.
200 satellites operating in 9 orbital planes. Planes are inclined 89° & separated by ~20° RAAN. (saberastro.com)

Qianfan is Beginning to Test Consumer Ground Equipment.
“China’s median speed, as of May 2026, is 222 Megabits per second. Hong Kong’s is 350 Megabits per second, while Macao’s is 315 Megabits per second.” (china-in-space.com)

Current Qianfan Constellation consists of 200 satellites operating in 9 orbital planes. Planes are inclined 89° & separated by ~20° RAAN. (saberastro.com)

Pattern of the Life Analysis: Cosmos 2589 & USA 325

28 May – 22 June 2026: We last looked at Cosmos 2589 (64467) back in the 4 May 2026 edition of the Flash. In that article the COMSPOC helped me out due to a paucity of publicly available orbital data on USA 325 (51281). While we still lack updated orbital location for the US satellite (latest TLE is from 6 Jan 2026), I still have the contact information for Joe, Andy and Bob over at COMSPOC. I had been seeing some interesting reporting from the Joint Commercial Operations Cell (JCO) and asked the COMSPOC team to check it out. With access to their own sensor data, COMSPOC performed a pattern of life analysis on the interactions between COSMOS 2589 and USA 325 from ~28 May – 22 June 2026. Below is their findings as well as some additional details I noted in JCO reporting. Watch COMSPOC Video.

Bottom Line

  • USA 325 and Cosmos 2589 remain in proximity with one another at 97.9°E longitude, although due to differences in inclination (USA 325 is inclined 0.6° while Cosmos 2589 is at 0.05°) close approaches are limited to 2x per day.
  • The separation distance between the two satellites varies from 20 – 400km.
  • Lighting conditions during point of closest approach (POCA) have been favorable for USA 325 to observe Cosmos 2589.
    • JCO reporting has noted several instances where the photometric values of Cosmos 2589 have changed near the time of closest approach USA 325. While we can’t say definitively what the cause is for this chang
  • Both satellites continue to make minor maneuvers. From 8 May – 22 Jun Cosmos 2589 conducted 18 maneuvers while USA 325 maneuvered 7 times.
    • Both satellites appear to be maintaining their orbits and operating at a safe distance from one another. There have been no aggressive maneuvers from either.
  • I should also mention that Chinasat 11 (39157) is also right in the middle of the action. Chinasat 11 has been orbiting at 97.9° for at least the last 2.5 years. Chinese space operators must be wondering what happened to their once quiet neighborhood.

USA 325, COSMOS 2589 and Chinasat 11 All In Orbit at 97.9°E Longitude.(COMSPOC_OPS)

15-23 June Shows Pattern of USA 325 Having Favorable Solar Conditions for Observing Cosmos 2589 at Point of Closest Approach.
(COMSPOC_OPS)

5 Jun 2026 06:14:51Z: 5.8km Close Approach of USA 325 & Cosmos 2589
Sun is Behind USA 325 Illuminating Cosmos 2589 (Sun Angle of 144°) (COMSPOC_OPS)

10 May – 22 June 2026: Coupled Longitude Values for USA 325 and Cosmos 2589
(COMSPOC_OPS)

26 May – 22 June 2026: USA 325 and Cosmos 2589 Maneuver History and Timing (COMSPOC_OPS)

Editor’s Comment: US and Russian space operators appear to be comfortable with the orbital relationship between USA 325 & COSMOS 2589, only conducting small stationkeeping maneuvers to combat East/West drift and maintain inclinations. USA 325 is routinely within 20km of Cosmos 2589 with highly favorable lighting conditions. The timing of Cosmos 2589’s changing photometric values could be an indicator of Russian space operators altering the satellite’s attitude when USA 325 is in close proximity. It will be interesting to see how long USA 325 maintains its current location as other interesting objects (I’m looking at you China) are launched into geosynchronous orbit.

Russia Space Based GPS Jamming? Arguments For & Against

By Dr. Larissa Beavers

Recent reporting and technical research suggest that a series of short, wide-area GPS/GNSS outages may be linked to Russian early-warning satellites. The Defense One article summarizes a University of Texas research paper that identified repeated bursts of radio-frequency energy near the GPS/Galileo L1 band. These bursts reportedly lasted about 10 seconds and affected receivers across broad areas from Europe to Greenland and Canada. Because of the large geographic footprint, researchers argue the source was unlikely to be a local ground jammer or aircraft-based system.

Indicators Supporting Attribution:

  • Researchers observed at least 75 interference events between 2019 and 2026.
  • The events appeared as short, powerful radio-frequency bursts around 1558.5 MHz.
  • The affected area was geographically broad, which supports a possible space-based source.
  • The University of Texas team used signal-strength patterns and timing data to narrow the likely source to Russian EKS early-warning satellites in Molniya orbits.
  • The interference reportedly affected GPS, Galileo, and BeiDou signals, but not Russia’s GLONASS.
  • Recent official and open-source reporting shows a broader pattern of Russian-linked GNSS jamming and spoofing across Europe, particularly near Kaliningrad and in the Baltic region.
  • If confirmed, this would represent a concerning escalation because a space-based jammer could affect very large regions from orbit.

EKS Coverage GPS World

Putin Talking with Young Scientists Defense One

This viewpoint treats the event as part of a larger Russian electronic warfare and counterspace pattern. The strongest argument is not just that GPS was disrupted, but that the scale, timing, frequency, and orbital correlation point toward a Russian satellite-linked source.

A cautious interpretation is still necessary. The strongest skeptical point is that the Russian satellite link is based on technical attribution rather than public government confirmation. The research paper is recent and was submitted for review, meaning its findings should be treated as significant but still open to expert scrutiny. Also, most GNSS interference worldwide continues to come from terrestrial or near-terrestrial sources, including ground jammers, spoofing systems, electronic warfare spillover, and accidental interference.

Key Uncertainties and Alternative Explanations:

  • The study confidently links some events to Russian early-warning satellites, but not every event has the same level of attribution.
  • Some reporting notes that only a small number of the 75 cases were directly tied to specific satellites; other cases point to the same network based on signal similarity.
  • Russia has denied many GNSS interference accusations, and public evidence does not reveal intent.
  • The disruptions were short, often around 10 seconds, which raises questions about whether they were intentional jamming, testing, accidental emissions, or another satellite system behavior.
  • GNSS interference can be caused by many sources, including ground-based jammers, spoofers, solar activity, receiver problems, or data-processing errors.
  • The events have not yet been clearly tied to major operational damage, so claims about strategic effect should be measured.
  • More independent validation, classified confirmation, or public technical review would strengthen the conclusion.

The skeptical view does not dismiss the Russian satellite theory, but it argues that attribution and intent remain uncertain. A balanced conclusion is that the evidence is serious and credible, but the public record does not yet prove motive or confirm that every event was deliberate Russian space-based jamming.

Pics o’ the Fortnight!

28 June 2026 Image from FY-4B (@SegerYU via X)

“Satellite imagery confirms the successful Ukrainian strike on Russia’s Vladimir space communications center, critically damaging its main 25-meter satellite dish, key antennas and core communications facilities.” (@bayraktar_1love via X)

“Reconstructed @SpaceX June 23 Starfall mission trajectory, based on @Dillonshrop06 elsets, and optical tracking from China: 1. altitude/apogee ~ 900km; 2. plane change maneuver agreed to Australia sighting; 3. fuel dumping event in China at ~ 13:40 UTC; 4. reentry ~ 14:08 UTC.” (@mickeywzx via X)

19 Jun 2026: Rocket Lab VICTUS HAZE Launch
From Launch Complex 1 in New Zealand. Watch Video (@RocketLab via X)

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